Interest Rates

A textbook, commodity-like top in gold would be a panicky, spiky event that would take the metal well above $2000.

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Does The Market Have A Party Preference In The Presidential Election? Results are a wash, so investors might rethink their assumptions about party affiliation and market performance.

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For central bank policy effectiveness, global economic growth, interest rates, and inflation. While lowered expectations are a good thing in the near term, long term return expectations for most asset classes should be lowered too.

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In the near term, U.S. interest rates are expected to be range-bound, and we remain neutral on the U.S. yield curve. Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell again in January, and remains on a “lower risk” signal.

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The new deal reached by Congress has little substance and no impact at all until 2014 or beyond. More “kick the can down the road.” Long term debt/deficit issues remain unsolved.

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U.S. likely averted worst-case scenario of default, but credit rating downgrade is still likely. Main impact of downgrade is not the increase in interest rates itself, but rather the liquidity risk in all markets that involve treasury securities as collateral.

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The inability of our politicians to recognize and resolve short and long term debt/deficit issues has caused many of us to lose even more confidence in Washington.

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Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.

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“Of Special Interest” this month evaluates several stock market valuation techniques. Newfangled valuation techniques do not always lead to better results.

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An orderly decline of the dollar is not necessarily a big concern. On the other hand, a sudden collapse of the dollar, in conjunction with spiking U.S. interest rates, would be a terrible thing. So far this has not been the case.

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Long term interest rates could continue rising, as inflation expectations increase and investors demand higher yields.

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Bond bubble deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation and mountain of debt.

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The game is now over for Discretionary, and this opinion is supported by the sector’s decline to the bottom of our GS Score ten-sector composite.

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The bond bubble is deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for expected rising inflation and the U.S. mountain of debt.

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We raised most of our twelve month yield targets this month, based on higher inflation expectations and U.S. debt concerns. Extremely low yields at the short end of the curve are the result of a stimulative Fed policy. Rising yields at the long end of the curve reflect rising inflation expectations.

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The bond bubble could be deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for expected rising inflation and the U.S. mountain of debt.

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This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look back at and updates some our favorite charts from 2010.

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Bond bubble continues to inflate, much like money pouring into tech stocks at the height of the internet bubble.

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The kneejerk reaction to worries about excessive sovereign debt has been to bail out of the European sovereign debt and pile into U.S. sovereign debt. Unless the U.S. can get its own fiscal act together, we may face this same panic reaction farther down the road.

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Bond bubble continues to inflate, much like money pouring into tech stocks at the height of the internet bubble.

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