Economy

Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.

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Bond market adjusting to end of Fed easing cycle, expected 2002 economic recovery and corporate rush to lock in lower borrowing costs.

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Expect further Fed cuts in short rates, but this could do more harm than good.

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Market shrugged off bad news; but rally from the lows is almost a text book example of a bear market rally. Plus, Steve's current outlook regarding the Economy, Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates.

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Yield curve has risen dramatically in recent weeks, probably forecasting economic recovery ahead (6-12 months?), but also reflecting deteriorating budget surplus situation.

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Unlike most past market crises, a post-crisis rally did not immediately follow the September 11th Attack. October Expectations: The passage of time is beginning to moderate Wall Street’s debilitating pain. I think the stock market rebound rally could be about to get underway in earnest.

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Art Cashin’s Intuitive Observations regarding the altered ambiance in New York. September 19th Conference Call with Steve Leuthold and Charley Maxwell summarized.

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Economy  may already be halfway or more through recession. GDP growth still barely positive, but revisions could change that. Tech bust magnitude and breadth of Q2 profit plunge spell recession.

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What I Worry About...The possibility of this being a secular, not a cyclical bear market. Four decades in the investment business have taught me to respect the message of the market itself.

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By Kate Welling - Companies are still acting, by and large, as if they have an inalienable right to spin numbers in whatever direction produces the most pleasing results.

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GDP growth still barely positive, but trend has been sharply lower. May already be halfway through a recession. Tech bust and Q2 profit decline additionally support this view.

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Economy may already be halfway through a recession, but expect economic uptick by early 2002. Fed near end of easing.

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Expect Q2 and Q3 GDP to weaken due to business cost cutting, lagging global economy and less robust consumer spending. But, tax rebate, the Fed, and money supply growth should spawn new economic expansion by early 2002.

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Statistically the summer rally is mostly fiction, historically producing average or slightly below average stock market performance….but don’t plan a three month vacation yet!

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

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Some may disagree, but a number of classic bull market transition elements are in place. Also, falling Earnings are not reason to stay away from the stock market. Superior performance comes in the years earnings are falling the most.

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I am positive about today’s stock market, but there are some considerations that could cause my optimism to be premature. A bubble/bust comparison between the great gold and silver bubble of 1979-1980 versus the 1998-present Internet sector. Not all single digit stocks should be shunned.

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Recession means it is time to buy stocks. Knowing to buy stocks half way through a recession is easy. The hard part is, when the recession started, and when it might end.

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Stock selection in a recession is a different ball game! A look at some of the rules and the traps when investing during a recession. The Bullish Message Of Breadth: Demonstration of how divergences between the S&P 500 and the A/D Lines have denoted market tops and market strength.

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Earnings are declining and economy has slowed. Just why are we buying stocks?

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