Economy
Bond Market Summary
Bond market rally sputters, as consensus changes from multiple Fed rate cuts to “one and done”. Greenspan upbeat assessment of economy chokes off further bond advance.
Bond Market Summary
Powerful bond rally in May and early June started to lose its sizzle later in the month, as less negative economic news diminished chances of imminent Fed easing.
Bond Market Summary
Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.
View from the North Country
Soft Landing? Better fasten your seat belts...the odds are against it. Is the sun setting on the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency? Also, how gold is still disappointing its fans and a look at one of the ways your Social Security tax is spent.
Bond Market Summary
Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.
Stock Market Hits New Highs, But Major Trend Is Still Negative
Greenspan's comments about the possibility of lower short term rates and orchestrating a soft landing ignited the bond market and stocks followed suit, with several market indices hitting new highs.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market now ahead of itself...Economy stronger than many perceive...Fed may not be done tightening...Expect bond market correction to develop from overbought position sometime in March.
Economy Showing No Signs of Cooling Off
Economy Humming Along...Fed Not Done Yet...Inflation Still Number One Worry
View From the North Country
The Economic Surprise And Inflation, The Feds Overheating Economy And Inflation Fears Are Justified and “Contract With America”: The Danger Is Big Tax Cuts But Minimal Spending Cuts
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.
View From the North Country
Treasury zero bonds are becoming increasingly attractive for retirement accounts and other investors who want to know with absolute certainty how much they are going to get and when they will get it. Also, preliminary Leuthold Group economic and market projections for 1995.
Major Trend Index Improved, But Still Negative
It still looks like a bear market to us or, at minimum, an old bull market that is topping out.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but rally seems underway.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve is flattening out.
Major Trend Index Still Says Bear
Major Trend still in "negative" territory and continues to deteriorate. Downside equity market risk viewed as significant.
View From the North Country
Economic expansion now 40 months old...Yes, it has been somewhat anemic, but nevertheless it may be well past middle age. Getting real about risk: risk is not the same as volatility.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve looks like it may be flattening out.
What Might “Cause” a 1994 Bear Market?
Some 1994 potential catalysts which could shift stock market psychology.
Inside the Bond Market
Streisand concert tickets got more bids than treasuries in late March and the first day of April. It was a painful period for both bond and stock investors.
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March 2026 Issue
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