Economy
Economic Outlook
Don’t get drawn into the TIPs trap. Lack of attractive bond opportunities and prospects for higher inflation may draw investors to Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds. However, there is still risk of significantly higher interest rates, and the fact the inflation factor is tied to an unreliable CPI.
Bond Market Summary
The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds is back down to a normal level, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.
Reading The Tea Leaves The Stock Market One Year Ago...vs. Today
A comparison of today’s market conditions compared to one year ago. We look at valuations, sentiment, group leadership and Major Trend categories.
Bond Market Summary
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004 (6% in the first half, 4% in the second half). But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($475 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
Bond Market Summary
Fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($374 billion in 2003) is a significant problem for bonds. Project 2004 budget deficit will expand to $535 billion.
Bond Market Summary
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.
View From The North Country
What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.
Bond Market Summary
Economy picking up steam in second half. Early Q3 GDP estimate much better than expected.
Bond Market Summary
Economy picking up steam in second half. Revised Q2 GDP better than expected.
Client Questions
Answering client questions on the economic recovery, bull market upside, valuations, Main Street and what could go wrong?
Bond Market Summary
GDP growth of +4.0% projected for 2003. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.
Bond Market Summary
High Yield bonds rated marginally attractive after continued spread narrowing.
Wind In The Sails
Continue to position our portfolios to take advantage of the current updraft in the U.S. stock market. Economic results and earnings reports continue to surprise on the upside.
View From The North Country
Stage is set for market’s next advance, breaking out of its two month consolidation.
Bond Market Summary
“Risk-free bond returns could become return-free risks.” The Leuthold Group has hedged its fixed income position by shorting U.S. Treasuries. May completely hedge entire fixed income exposure later this month.
A Half-Time Report
Economy will pick up steam in the second half, sustaining the already in progress earnings recovery. Also, Cyclical rally targets and equity leadership going into the second half.
Bond Market Summary
Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom. But are lower rates really necessary to boost business spending?
Bond Market Summary
Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries, if necessary to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom, but will it be the catalyst to boost business spending/borrowing? We think not.
And Now...Back To The Fundamentals
No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.
Bond Market Summary
New bond market timing tool discovered. Testing reveals it has a remarkable forecasting record. Currently signaling bond market top!
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
