Economy

At this point, the bond market outlook is still viewed as negative, it was also negative last month. The upside seems minimal over the next 6-12 months.

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The stock market often underperforms when the economy is strong and earnings are surging. It performs best when real GDP is negative and earnings are declining.

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Weight of the evidence now mildly negative on bond market.

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The late October bond market retreat spilled over into November, as nervous investors continued to be bombarded with better than expected economic reports.

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Bond market bulls experienced a brief chill in mid-October. After starting the month on a strong note, most bond categories retreated for the remainder of the month as better economic news began to trickle in.

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Client Questions...Gold: Is It A New Bull Market?...Gambling Stock Update...The 50 Largest Non-Financial Multinationals, A Survey By The Economist

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The early April surge in the bond market stalled out at the late February highs, beating a hasty retreat in the last week of the month.

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Today the unexpectedly bad unemployment numbers were released. The Fed immediately announced an almost panicky half point cut in the discount rate. The economic recovery may not be for real.

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We have been finding it hard to visualize a strong economic recovery developing in 1992. Would you be surprised to see 1992 produce one or two quarters of 5% real GNP growth? Well my friend, economist Peter L. Bernstein, would not be at all surprised to see this occur.

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The recent “surprise” downward revision in quarterly real GNP growth served to drive the majority of investment professionals and economists from the “no recession” camp. Also, Junk Mail Busters and Ken Safian lives!

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Upon returning to the office at month end, my first impression of April stock market action was positive. But then I dug into our indicators, chart books and numbers. It was clear my first impression was wrong.

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The bond market has weathered some recent storms better than anticipated. The dollar has also performed better than expected. But inflation fears could increase in coming months.

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Remember the basics: A slowing economy should bring lower interest rates but it also typically brings declining earnings, not usually a good environment for stocks.

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In mid-March, the bond market was jolted by a nasty PPI number and spent the rest of the month creeping back to pre-PPI release levels. The net result was an unchanged to slightly higher bond market in March.

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For the month, the net loss for long T-bonds amounted to a half a point or less. All things considered, I thought it was an impressive performance, even though it took place in the dog days of August.

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I think the market looks quite impressive. Many of the formula types, the now in vogue “tactical asset allocators”, will have to scramble back into stocks if long bond rates continue to come down or if earnings growth assumptions go up.

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The Outlook - A Summary of Current Views…Faulty Recollection of 1929…A Crash Still Waiting To Happen…December Bottom Fishing Time…Aussie Bonds…The Leuthold Group Eats Some Garlic

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Maybe it's a Minnesota year - the Twins win the World Series and Northwest Airlines leads the pack terms of customer complaints! Also, tracking the impact of Black October around the world.

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Mid-course corrections to our annual economic and market projections for 1987. Also, some low down dirty pirates from “out east” made a pass at Minnesota’s beloved Dayton Hudson...our Legislature's response and the Greenmail Solution.

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In this business, it is often best to conveniently forget what was said in the past. But unfortunately, when the opinions are written down and published, this does not always work. At any rate, this publication has a sometimes embarrassing commitment to full disclosure. So again, we will include our old (1986) crystal ball gazing right along with this year’s predictions.

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