Economy
Bond Market Summary
Bond market looks attractive on 6-12 month basis. Economic expansion long in the tooth, but still surprisingly strong...Fed may tighten next time to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry.
Bond Market Summary
Economic expansion long in the tooth...Fed working to slow down the economy...Inflation cool...U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields...strong dollar should continue to stimulate foreign bond buying.
Getting Back Together On The Upside
Impressive rally did not alter Negative status of Major Trend Index. S&P 500 beat 90% of sectors in April. Earnings holding up well in Q1, but margins likely to shrink as the year progresses.
Goldilocks Forever?
The squeeze is on. Lack of corporate pricing power, higher borrowing costs, rising labor costs and the higher dollar will eventually squeeze profit margins. Look out for earnings shortfalls, while analysts catch up to a change in trend.
Current Outlook
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term the market may go higher.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time...Steve Leuthold offers his 1997 views and 1996 reviews on U.S. stock market, interest rates, economy, etc.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds outperformed stocks over past two months. Most investors not well positioned to take advantage of an extended period of bond’s performance superiority. As inflation threat recedes and economy slows, bonds should continue to outperform.
The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships
In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.
Year-End Cross Currents Start Early
While September was a surprisingly strong month, October was just confusing. Year-end cross currents seem to have started early this year. Major Trend Index now just barely in neutral territory with a ratio of 0.95.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months. Economy should slow by year end (recession in 1997?). Inflation should remain under control.
Expecting Stocks Down and Bonds Up? Explain Please
“If you are expecting long bond rates to fall as low as 6% later in 1997, how come you are so afraid of the stock market?” This question, or some variation thereof, is frequently heard from clients these days.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds rallied in early August on tepid employment and inflation reports, lower deficit news, and (surprise) welfare legislation. This bond market rally looks like it could get legs.
A Major Market Top in the Making
Since turning negative on July 2, the Major Trend Index has deteriorated very rapidly. Major stock market top now seems to be developing. There are now five stock market positives and seven negatives.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.
The 1996 Transition
April market showered investors with several interesting changes. Technology stocks recovered their sizzle as PC shipments came in better than expected and Internet buyout fever ran prices up. Secondary stocks scored a TKO.
View from the North Country
Thermal pollution time…Steve Leuthold’s 1996 views (and 1995 reviews) on stocks, interest rates, economy, dollar, deficit, earnings, alternative investment areas and, yes, the Super Bowl.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing. Other positives include strong foreign buying, and improving fiscal disciplines.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing...other positives include stronger dollar, foreign buying, and declining budget deficit.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market rally rekindles, as consensus changes from “one and done” to possibility of further easing...other positives include stronger dollar and foreign buying.
Comparing U.S. Equity Capitalization With GDP: Now Shows Stock Market Extremely Overvalued
Testing of this indicator has offered some strong evidence that potential returns from today's level could be quite minimal.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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