Economy
Bond Market Summary
Two recent bump-up’s in rates by Fed may not be enough.
September…A New Investment Season Begins
September-October, two months to be wary of.
The Mixed Month Of May
The S&P 500 eased 2.5% in May, while measures of smaller cap stocks edged up 1% to 2%. Major Trend Index has shifted to negative status. Dow Jones 40,000?
Revenge of the Nerds
I don’t ever recall seeing a month with such a sudden and dramatic change in market character, at least not in terms of sector and group leadership.
Bond Market Summary
At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral. U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
Steve’s personal judgements and opinions incorporating observations, experience and gut feelings, going beyond the quantitative aspects of the Major Trend Index disciplines.
Major Trend Back to Negative
Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.
Inside the Bond Market
Bond market getting ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...But money flows could slow, should Asia outlook improve or Japan act decisively.
Should We Believe It This Time?
On June 22, clients received an Interim Memo noting that our composite Major Trend Index had slipped to Negative status. The subsequent calculation lost a few more points and remains marginally negative.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them.
The Not So Merry Month of May
May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.
Bond Market Summary
Near term, bond market now stabilizing after being roughed up during most of April…We see no imminent Fed loosening or tightening in the cards at this point.
April: Earnings Cross Currents
Late April preliminary real GDP estimate was a strong 4.2% gain, with the lowest inflation adjustment in 34 years. The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged from the prior quarter for the first time since 1954.
Bond Market Summary
Near term, bond market now stabilizing after being somewhat ahead of itself...No Fed loosening or tightening in the cards at this point.
The February Sweet Spot
Major Trend Index turned Positive in early February...Expect market to move higher over next few months as long as Main Street keeps fueling Wall Street.
Stock/Bond Relationship...It Is Changing
Increasingly, stock and bond markets moving in opposite directions. There may be some reasons why this is happening now.
Bond Market Summary
Bond risk still considered well below potential equity market risk...longer term, bond potential returns at least equal to potential equity returns.
View From the North Country
The balanced budget: politicians had to move fast because the budget looked as if it might balance itself without their help. Wage Inflation: our belief that it has been accelerating has been wrong, particularly in Q2.
Bond Market Summary
Fed may tighten later in the year to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry. U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields.
Goldilocks Economy, Blockbuster Earnings Recovery
Goldilocks economy keeps rolling along, but earnings recovery has been nothing short of spectacular.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
