Economy
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. From today’s low interest rate levels, there is not much upside, but downside is significant!
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. May deficit report encouraging.
View From The North Country
A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2005.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion will reach four years on 9/30/2005. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
View From The North Country
A special Kate Welling interview with Steve Leuthold. Discussion runs the gambit from Leuthold’s current outlook for the stock/bond markets, to groups he favors, to liquidity concerns, and hedge funds.
Economic Outlook
Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
The current expansion is below the average pace of a typical expansion.
Economic Outlook
The U.S. deficit was not a bond market negative in 2004, but continuing long term deficits will become a negative.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Recession could possibly be getting underway by end of 2005.
Economic Outlook
Lower than expected 2004 budget deficit was a short term bond market positive, but longer term deficits are a negative.
Economic Outlook
Bond yields have declined 40-55 basis points in the past three months.
View From The North Country
After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.
Economic Outlook
Falling interest rates and declining oil prices should bolster consumer spending and hopefully get us past the current economic soft spot.
View From The North Country
Continue to conclude the cyclical bull market prevails but my level of conviction is down a few notches. Also, an oil message from the market and “Don’t Be Economic Girlie Men”.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
Current economic recovery may appear to be lagging, with a GDP growth rate of +3.6% ACR since Q1 2001, but most recent five expansions averaged +4.2% ACR and the big 1990-2000 expansion grew at only 3.4% per year. Economy is still healthy.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
View From The North Country
Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($483 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
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