Economy

There’s an overwhelming consensus that the U.S. economy has slipped into a long-term phase of declining growth in real GDP and chronically higher unemployment. Here’s a dissenting opinion from a client, along with Steve Leuthold’s response.

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Doug Ramsey examines the history of bank failures and prior liquidity crises (back to 1830) to demonstrate that this current financial meltdown is not unprecedented. The names have changed, but the economic and emotional responses have been loosely patterned over the entire time frame.

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It now appears that the downward bias in inflationary pressures suggested by the CPI data is tame compared to the GDP Deflator. And if this is true, investors may be operating under a false sense of security  that economic growth remains positive (albeit ever so slight).

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A popular buzz word in recent months is “decoupling”, often used in building a case for investing in fast growing foreign stock markets even though the U.S. economy is entering a phase of minimal economic growth or recession.

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The stock market tends to peak out 6-12 months prior to recession but turns back up prior to the end of a recession.

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Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.

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CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008

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We expect broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year.

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It is very possible that the early part of 2008 will see a brief period of higher inflation combined with slowing real growth in the U.S. economy.

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Bulls may indeed have Christmas, but fundamentals for bearish case in 2008 are extensive.

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Expect economy to slow the remainder of 2007 as a result of slower consumer and business spending, as well as housing and auto woes. A 2008 recession is now a stronger possibility. 

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Not only is October ‘National Pork Month’ in the U.S., it is the “Year of the Pig” in China. This brings to mind the old stock market homily “A Bull can make money and a Bear can make money, but Pigs are losers.”

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What little discussion of a possible U.S. recession there had been in the first half of the year has dried up with an apparent pick up in the economy. “Inside The Stock Market” this month presents a 2008 Recession Watch, identifying some indicators which may prove useful in assessing the possibly of a coming recession.

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2007 half time report. Revisiting our original 2007 projections with some current modifications. Outlook for stock market, interest rates, inflation, profits, economy, the deficits, the U.S. dollar and gold.

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Expect economic expansion to pick up a bit after weak first quarter, but a 2008 recession is a possibility. 

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We know we’re not the only ones to have noticed, but the old economic rules of thumb haven’t been working in the U.S. bond market for some time. 

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Steve discusses his opinion of market cycle sin this month’s “View From The North Country”. He is a believer in cycles, but not so sure about rhythmic cycles. Also, his thoughts on the importance of market history.

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We still believe interest rates are headed higher in 2007. Investors have sought the safety of U.S. Treasuries amid concerns of slowing economic growth and sub-prime jitters, sending ten year T-Note yields to their lowest level since December 2006.

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We believe interest rates are headed higher in 2007. Economy picked up some in Q4. Bond market sentiment still looks too optimistic.

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Doug Ramsey steps in as guest commentator in this month’s “View From The North Country” to highlight what we currently see as the bullish arguments for the stock market and contrast those with the bearish arguments.

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