Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Our Stock Quality Ranking work currently shows stocks with low quality rankings outperforming those with high quality rankings.

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There are twelve critical indexes (using Big Ten math) that have failed to “confirm” September’s new cyclical bull market highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.

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Is it time to reverse the “long U.S. consumer/short China” trade?

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Investor infatuation with portfolio income is higher than ever, just as there is less of it available than at any time in history.

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Stock market sentiment is overheated, at least on a short-term basis. But does excessively optimistic market sentiment lead to worse September-October market action? Yes it does, but the observations are limited.

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With “That Time Of Year” approaching and the Major Trend Index not too far above the neutral zone, we review nine factors impacting the stock market from a glass-half-empty perspective.

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VLT Momentum fired long-term BUY signals at the end of July on the Russell 2000, MSCI World Index and EAFE - and more signals could be coming…

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Most investors don’t like to swim in shark-infested waters, but our screen may make it more comfortable for some to consider getting back in.

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The Major Trend Index has been bullish throughout 2012, and the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of +12% through early August. Yet few managers have managed to match or exceed that benchmark, to do so, they would have had to be “fully invested and maximum defensive.”

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This summer’s rally has taken stocks to the brink of another bull market high, but it has not been an all-inclusive affair. While the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line has remained healthy, other technical indicators have not.

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While the big S&P companies’ EPS have held up, our earnings breadth work has not held up as well. Part of this development can be traced back to February 2011’s “Point of Recognition.”

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The bull market is increasingly showing signs of advanced age, but that is only to be expected for a move that now measures 40 months off its March 2009 low.

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Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during the last quarter.

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Taking into account the variety of total return contributors, we conclude that no one regional equity market stands out as a slam dunk investment idea.

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The April/May swoon (an S&P 500 loss of -9.9%) has been accompanied by significant deterioration in our Major Trend Index. But the latest reading (data through June 1st) stayed positive, and our best guess is that it will hold firm.

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While this is not our forecast, some investors will no doubt be mortified to learn that a “typical” calendar year (again, if there were such a thing) contains a drawdown as large as –13.5%.

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Is there an historical precedent for important stock market highs to occur in the same month for three or more consecutive years? YES. In 1938-1942 the S&P 500 registered key highs during the first two weeks of January for five straight years.

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What were QE2 and Operation Twist intended for if not to save Europe?

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Yes, we consider U.S. Treasury securities a bubble across the entire yield spectrum, and the situation has probably now moved into “extra innings” (think 10th or 11th) thanks to the flight to (perceived) quality triggered by the European debt crisis.

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A look at how to “Sell in May” without actually selling.

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