Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

It’s not just kids’ sports where the achievement bar has been lowered. 

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We are in clear view of the “Twin Peaks” S&P 500 highs of the last decade and these should be eclipsed by mid-year. But when the S&P 500 is adjusted for inflation or denominated in Swiss Francs or Gold these highs may prove elusive.

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The late 1970’s bull market has some eerie similarities, and sentiment reflects Main Street’s newfound bullishness. Plus a look at January fund category flows gives us some points to ponder.

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Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?

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Our “second best really is best” analysis comes up with an asset class we like and a sector we hate, plus trying it monthly doesn’t work out quite the way we thought it would.

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Some of the best and worst performers of 2011 repeated their performance in 2012.

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Our Stock Quality Rankings currently show that stocks with Low Quality rankings outperformed those with High Quality rankings.

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We’ve lately made it a January tradition to publish a “Rear View Mirror” forecast for S&P 500 returns out to the end of this decade.

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Our annual screen presents the candidates with the largest declines and smallest rebounds, thus far, in each market cap segment.

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While we don’t know which direction it will head next, we break down a few of the MTI categories and present some of our observations.

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Retail stocks barely paused during the September-November market setback, and have lately shot to new all-time relative strength (RS) highs. We were recently asked whether this bullish behavior was effectively an “inoculation” against falling into recession over the near term. 

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A “dozen” major market measures have moved to new bull market highs in the last three months. But many of these have been the groups that do best when “risk” is “off,” and may be a reason “Ain’t Nobody Happy,” even in an up year. 

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We have chosen to have the original MTI “subsume” many critical global measures, and put all of our best efforts into a single tool monitoring the overall stock market environment.

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We’ve published a series of research notes detailing our thoughts on the Health Care sector in Emerging Asia and formed a thematic group “Asia Healthy Tigers.” Even though most of the investable companies in Emerging Market Health Care are located in Asia, we decided to expand to other regions as well. 

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Those adopting LDI today are doing so at the least opportune time in more than 60 years.

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We can’t imagine what good could come from Ben Bernanke’s September 13th decision to resume money printing. What is the Fed going to do if another risk event hits and the S&P goes down 15-20%? Pray?

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Our latest testing indicates that relative dollar stability provides the best backdrop for stocks.

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There are twelve critical indexes (using Big Ten math) that have failed to “confirm” September’s new cyclical bull market highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.

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A textbook, commodity-like top in gold would be a panicky, spiky event that would take the metal well above $2000.

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Our Stock Quality Ranking work currently shows stocks with low quality rankings outperforming those with high quality rankings.

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