Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
China’s 12th ‘Five-Year Plan’ and the Healthy Tigers Index
Leuthold’s Jun Zhu provides an update on China’s latest Five-Year Plan and how it may affect the Pharmaceutical industry in China.
Up Market In January = Up Year??
As January goes, so goes the year. 2012 looks like it could well be an up year for stocks based on the January barometer. Market cycle chart from 1958 also says 2012 will be the “time to buy.”
Looking Deeper Into The Tails Of Distribution
Leuthold’s Eric Weigel examines both positive and negative tail risk among asset classes over two time periods… the recent volatile era versus a preceding, not-as-volatile time period.
Worrying About 2019 - A Longer Term Forecast
Forecast for 2019 (yes that’s 8 years away) is for S&P 500 to reach 1974 (an +8.0% ACR). Projection based simply on earnings growth and normalized P/E ratios.
2011 Volatility Summary: S&P 500 And NASDAQ
Even though the major indices ended the year flat for the most part, volatility measures paint a different story.
Buy Prior Year’s Winner, Loser, or Runner-Up?
The best strategy has been to buy not the prior year’s top performing sector or asset class, but to buy the runners-up—or “Bridesmaids”— of the prior year.
Group Trends of 2010 Persist In 2011—Somewhat
How did 2010’s “Dreams” and “Nightmares” pan out in 2011? What are 2011’s hypothetical portfolios predicting for 2012?
Playing The Bounce: Last Screen Of The Season & Historical Results
The last screen of 2011 is presented and historical November Bounce screen results are detailed.
New Year’s Surprise: Turning More Bullish
Major Trend Index improves to positive and Dow Theory Says “Buy”!
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings
Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during 2011. More upside for High Quality stocks going into 2012?
“Another” Year Of Gains?
U.S. equity investors were disappointed in 2011, but we’d point out they fared better than investors in 45 of 48 other countries tracked by MSCI.
“Just Make It Go Away”
Jim Bianco observed in September that Europe was still in a “pre-Lehman” mentality regarding its debt crisis, in which investors and policymakers “were worried more about the equity and propriety of where taxpayer money was going than about fixing the problem.”
Market Worrying You? Just Sleep On It!
A rather surprising discovery when comparing intraday versus overnight market price action, and perhaps a “Smart Money” buy signal revealed as well?
Major Trend Index: Deteriorates To Neutral
Major Trend Index fell to Neutral in late November. Net equity exposure reduced to 51% in Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios.
Dreams Of What Could Have Been
Doug Ramsey previews the 2011 hypothetical “Dream Portfolio” (or perhaps, “fear” portfolio). What would the portfolio manager with perfect foresight owned at the beginning of 2011? Should one now begin or continue to invest in the components of the Dream Portfolio?
Playing The Bounce: New Methodology And Backtesting
A new screening methodology for Leuthold’s traditional “Playing The Bounce” screen is presented and examined.
Nice Gains… But In The Wrong Groups
Sure looks like a bear market rally rather than start of new bull market. Many global indexes still down 20% or more from peak levels.
Tax Rates And The Good Old Days
Top marginal tax rate of 6%...applied only to income in excess of $500,000? It was a reality in 1913!
Rates Too High For A Housing Rebound?
Are mortgage rates still too high for a rebound when looking at real mortgage rates?
Buy Energy Stocks
Why is right now a great time to buy Energy stocks?
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