Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Monitoring Mutual Fund Cash Flows
Mutual fund investors less enthusiastic…Redemptions about matched inflows at the end of May. Supply of equities is starting to build, while cash holdings in funds is diminishing.
A Message in the Bond Market Madness?
The equity crowd is now having some second thoughts: What is good for bonds may not be good for stocks.
View from the North Country
Check out the new issue of The Numbers Game for a list of 120 companies with “Red Flags” which could potentially lead to earnings disappointments. Reminders and insights from one of Wall Street’s best: Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterioo & Company.
Is It 1987 OR A “New Era”?
It could be different this time...For a while. Equities at 24%—below normal minimums... Valuations still look excessive...Major Trend still negative. Market still going up.
Updating Our Earnings “Catch Up” Model…Spectacular Earnings Growth, Or Just A “Normal” Return To Trendline?
Corporate earnings growth was well below the trendline during the period of 1988-1993. Overall, earnings growth is now moving back in line with long term trends.
What Is Wrong with the Major Trend Index: Some Current Thoughts
At this point, it’s quite disappointing as to how the Major Trend Index work has functioned, especially in the past several months. It appears that too much lead time may have crept into the overall discipline.
Worth Noting
T-bonds are now clearly in the lead in the 1995 Performance Derby. Do dividend yields matter? Polling the pros in Baltimore and Boston.
Worth Noting
“Polling the pros” in April, adjusting stock market dividend yields for “buybacks”, mutual fund flows, looking beneath the Finished Goods PPI, and the possibility of rising inflation and interest rates.
Normalizing Earnings...Decycling and Determining Underlying Earnings Power
Earnings normalization of some type is essential when making historical relative P/E comparisons. The more cyclical the earnings of a market index (or an individual company) the more important normalizing or smoothing becomes.
View from the North Country
Soft Landing? Better fasten your seat belts...the odds are against it. Is the sun setting on the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency? Also, how gold is still disappointing its fans and a look at one of the ways your Social Security tax is spent.
Short Term Stock Market View
Our 100% short sale program has been posting strong positive returns in recent weeks, even though the market averages have continued to edge higher. This often indicates a general market decline is close at hand.
Leuthold Major Trend Guide Malfunctioning?
Equities now at 24%—below normal minimums. Valuations still look excessive. Major Trend improved, but still negative. Is it 1987 revisited, or a “new era”? It could be different this time, for a while.
Mutual Fund Cash Flow Focus
While the aggregate flow to mutual funds continues to be a net inflow, it is down substantially from year ago levels and some types of funds have been seeing net outflows.
View From the North Country
Should we just own stocks and forget about asset allocation? After all stocks have been the best performing asset class over the last 70 years.
Reducing Equities Below Normal Minimum
Reducing equities below normal minimum for the first time since the summer of 1987. Intrinsic Value work is now quite overvalued and approaching 1987 peak valuations. However, a 1987 type crash is not expected.
Highlights From The Gold Book
The stock market continued to show strength during March, with the DJIA turning in a 3.7% gain while the S&P 500 rose 2.7%.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Equity offerings have picked up somewhat, but so has the flow into mutual funds. Supply/Demand still seems in reasonable balance.
Worth Noting
How strong is the underlying market? An update on investor psychology and a look at the DJIA psychological barriers. The Leuthold Group’s February Polling the Pros results.
Earnings Momentum: How Much Better Can It Get?
Earnings momentum may be peaking. The economy should slow by mid-1995, but analysts may not be factoring this into estimates. Also, year over year comparisons will be tougher as 1994's big earnings numbers get factored in.
View from the North Country
The incentive system from hell: Adjusted for inflation, we now spend nine times as much on welfare as when the War on Poverty began in 1965. Also, an interesting study by Collins Associates: Past performance is not a reliable prediction of future performance and, in fact, is a poor predictor of future results.
Perception for the Professional
May 2026 Issue
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