Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.

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“In Search Of Earnings Disappointments”, Jim Floyd’s late March “The Numbers Game” publication and Perception II’s new clean look. The U. S. Murder rate is now decreasing…This is very surprising to most of us. The Republicans have cleaned house in the House, sharply reducing costs and improving efficiencies.

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Major Trend Index now positive, after changing weight of equity fund flows. Additional changes made in technical breadth and momentum measures should increase responsiveness when the current “new valuation era” closes down.

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With MTI turning positive, total equity exposure was increased to over 50% (now 58%) using index options to minimize and reduce risk...“new valuation era” continues...demand for U.S. equity funds continues to be key driver.

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Big cap bias in market may be driven by increased enthusiasm for index funds. S&P becoming difficult to beat, P/E ratios of Royal Blue tiers compressing.

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A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.

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No January effect this year. It was a large cap show, with the DJIA (+5.4%) outperforming 85%-90% of stock groups and sectors for the month and the S&P trouncing about 70%.

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This was the worst year ever for this strategy. In the previous two years, results did not live up to historical expectations. But this year, results were terrible.

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During the month of January, two major stock market positive factors became more positive, three remained about the same, and one became less positive. Among the four negative factors, all four became more negative.

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Major Trend Index modification will be made this week...weights of two mutual fund inflow components will be doubled due to their significance.

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Frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy. Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions appearing the January issue.

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Boosted equity exposure in Conventional and Unconventional Portfolios to “Play the Bounce” — but not much bounce yet.

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Thermal pollution time…Steve Leuthold’s 1996 views (and 1995 reviews) on stocks, interest rates, economy, dollar, deficit, earnings, alternative investment areas and, yes, the Super Bowl.

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What we will do if the Major Trend Index turns positive (it moved to neutral)?

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It was all there in November for the bulls, better action by secondary stocks, impressive breadth, and a strong bond market.

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The U.S. stock market has entered a new valuation era. The key question now is how long it will endure. Readers still heavily committed to stocks should be extremely wary. This won’t go on forever.

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Earnings and profit margins have soared since 1992. Operating earnings for the S&P Industrials are estimated at $40 here in 1995, and this estimate may prove to be conservative.

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Public, NOT professional sentiment may be all that really matters in today's stock market environment. The dark side of 401(k)s...Can unsophisticated investors really be expected to prudently allocate assets, maintain funding disciplines, and resist the temptation to borrow against their plans?

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Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...adding earnings momentum as a positive.

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The stock market: What IS different this time? The public's appetite for equity investing continues to top Wall Street’s ability to manufacture supply.

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