Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Lou Harris recent poll indicates mutual fund investors’ expectations are unrealistically high and many would sell if market declines.

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For the month of November, net inflows into U.S. focus funds are estimated at $14.4 billion, up 26% from $11.4 billion in October and above the $13.1 billion of November 1995.

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Weighted S&P 500 outperforming unweighted counterpart. Typical NASDAQ stock up 6% year to date, compared to +23% for Index (10 biggest NASDAQ stocks up average of 45%).

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Running a fresh “Playing the Bounce” screen at month end netted quite a handful of new names, and a few deletions from our previous screen featured in the October Interim Memo.

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Scarce on Wall Street: “SELL” recommendations. Why? Also, The Great American Weight Gain: How can the typical American really consume so much in a single year?

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While September was a surprisingly strong month, October was just confusing. Year-end cross currents seem to have started early this year. Major Trend Index now just barely in neutral territory with a ratio of 0.95.

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Are U.S. “Households” net equity sellers? We don’t think so!

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U.S. mutual fund flow less bullish in October (may be seasonal).

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In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.

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Supply/Demand bullish in September. Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $11 billion in September.

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May be another sub-par “Playing the Bounce” year. Most equities have already bounced off their lows, so this year's crop of busted stocks looks pretty lean and unusually risky.

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California’s Proposition 211: a blatant, self-serving enrichment scheme that has negative implications for all of us. Good news for stocks and bonds: likely that the Republicans will not lose the House, and will also retain control of the Senate.

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September a surprisingly strong month, with 4%-5% gains for most market indices. Significant MTI improvement, but still a ways from Neutral.

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Assets under management in Japan's mutual fund industry now at 9% of what they were less than 7 years ago.

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“If you are expecting long bond rates to fall as low as 6% later in 1997, how come you are so afraid of the stock market?” This question, or some variation thereof, is frequently heard from clients these days.

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Market timing: key to long term timing success is discipline. Politics 1996: the election outcome that minimizes prospects of decisive political action may provide the best market environment.

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The stock market performed pretty much as expected in August, although experiencing a somewhat unusual fade at month end. Major Trend remains negative. Some improvement but still a long way from Neutral.

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Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $14 billion in August.

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A one of a kind prospectus from Buffett, a must read unless you have already seen it.

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Since turning negative on July 2, the Major Trend Index has deteriorated very rapidly. Major stock market top now seems to be developing. There are now five stock market positives and seven negatives.

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