Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
DJIA Economic Sector Weightings…A Different Perspective
The four March changes in DJIA components shifted sector weightings for the index, most significantly in Energy, Financial, Healthcare and Technology.
Goldilocks Forever?
The squeeze is on. Lack of corporate pricing power, higher borrowing costs, rising labor costs and the higher dollar will eventually squeeze profit margins. Look out for earnings shortfalls, while analysts catch up to a change in trend.
View from the North Country
Proportionately, equity investment professionals have the most to lose when the Great Bull Market ends. But are investors really aware of their own potential stock market risks?
An Excellent Return Alternative to Stocks...With Much Less Risk
Bonds a good return alternative to stocks. Fed will help put the brakes on the economy while current yields seen to already discount another bump-up in rates.
1997 Volatility Update
Market volatility 1997 to date well above 1992-1995 levels and median levels 1997 to present.
February Mutual Fund Flows
Revised January 1997 U.S. equity mutual fund flows of $23.4 billion, setting an all-time record. February’s estimate of $20 billion brings YTD U.S. focus fund flows to $43 billion, well ahead of last year’s record pace.
A Sector Dissection of the S&P 500
Jim Floyd’s breakdown of eleven broad sectors within the S&P 500. The S&P 500 experienced 24 component stock changes during 1996. New component additions were not balanced within the sectors by the stock deletions.
Playing the Bounce Update
This year we did not employ this late 1996-early 1997 tactical trading strategy. Nevertheless, some of our readers did employ the strategy, so we continue to monitor performance.
Worth Noting and Quoting
Reasonable valuations(?), risk reductions and the wealth effect.
Current Outlook
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term the market may go higher.
A Sector Dissection Of The S&P 500
This is Jim Floyd's sector breakdown of eleven broad sectors within the S&P 500.
View From The North Country
Each February, this publication, sometimes with help from our readers, constructs a series of “Fearless Forecasts”.
The New Performance Funds
Over the last three years, capitalization weighted index funds (mostly S&P modeled) have been outperforming about 90% of the actively managed equity mutual funds.
Comparing Public And Professional Stock Market Expectations
85% of mutal fund holders expect the next ten years of stock market performance to match or exceed the last ten years.
Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
Longer term studies of mutual fund inflows, cash reserves, etc., can be found in the "Supply/Demand" section of this publication.
Twas An S&P 500 Month
The passive indexers continue to hold the hot hand.
Playing The Bouce Update
This year we did not employ this late 1996-early 1997 tactical trading strategy.
Early 1997: The Stock Market Looks Higher
December's stock market was a mixed up affair, but this is not unusual for December.
Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
Longer term studies of mutual fund inflows, cash reserves, etc., can be found in the “Supply/Demand” section of this publication.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time...Steve Leuthold offers his 1997 views and 1996 reviews on U.S. stock market, interest rates, economy, etc.
Perception for the Professional
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