Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Big Cap Versus Small Cap: S&P 500 Versus Russell 2000
The following table compares the performance of the Russell 2000 Index since its inception in 1979 with the S&P 500.
1997 Dreams And Nightmares...Minimal Metamorphosis
Each January, this publication has presented a look back at the prior year’s best and worst industry groups and institutional stocks.
Where Will The January-February Liquidity Flood Go?
Regardless of conflicting trends being reported in December by AMG and Trim Tabs, our studies conclude that December net inflows into U.S. focus funds (not foreign funds) exceeded December 1996.
Welcome to 1998
The new year has started with a disappointing thud rather than the liquidity induced bang expected by the consensus.
Emerging Markets: Bottom Fishing
Some emerging markets continued to submerge in December, others stabilized and a few rallied.
1997 Volatility Update
73 high volatility days YTD (31.6%). Highest volatility year since 1987 and matching 1982.
Worth Noting
New Era investment professionals, crowding onto the money train and a different way to look at the economic impact of bear markets.
The Current Stock Market Environment
After wavering in neutral several weeks, Major Trend Index turned negative November 24...Go to sidelines. Market rallied strongly in November but fund investors uncharacteristically stayed on the sidelines. Is this increased caution or seasonality?
View From the North Country
Employee stock option excesses (continued from last month), different viewpoints on options repricing (also continued from last month) and current updated inflation views.
November Mutual Fund Flows
The market fell in the week ending 11/5 and inflows dried up. Then came the surprise. The market rallied, but fund investors stayed on the sidelines.
Defensive Equity Sectors
For those who are looking to reduce their downside risk, we present potential Defensive Equity Sector Ideas, including Electric Utilities, REITs, Phones, Natural Gas and Value stocks.
Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
Earnings momentum continues to be strong. Small cap earnings are improving significantly, while big cap results remain robust.
1997 Volatility: Wow!
Obviously 1997 to date has been a high volatility year. This degree of day to day volatility was last recorded in 1987.
Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
The big volatility week at the end of October didn’t seem to cause much panic among fund buyers (maybe it was good they couldn’t get through on Monday). We are guessing the sustained strong net inflows will bounce back strongly.
Stock/Bond Relationship...It Is Changing
Increasingly, stock and bond markets moving in opposite directions. There may be some reasons why this is happening now.
Worth Noting
Main Street math, fund managers age and experience and average mutual fund shareholder profits.
View From the North Country
More and more employees get stock options these days, but for shareholders this can be a loser’s game. Comments on autumn in Vermont and the “Masochist’s Ball” (Contrary Opinion Forum).
The Greatest Drama on Television?
Major Trend Index downshifts to neutral. Big loss in Technical measures due to late October sell off. We are in a critical market period...Have Mr. And Ms. Main-Street become more skittish after experiencing a dose of downside risk?
Indexing Update
Index fund net inflows remained low in September at about $1.1 billion (estimated). This is almost flat compared to the $1.2 billion in August.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
After two weeks of net outflows in August, the public returned to the mutual fund trough in September.
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