Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Day To Day Stock Market Volatility
Amazingly, nine of twenty one trading days in August were high volatility days (1% or greater move).
August Was Terrible
August’s decline was the largest monthly decline since October 1987. Recommended Client Strategy: maintain most defensive equity stance available - if cash is not an option, concentrate in defensive equity sectors.
Out of Synch
Unless earnings begin to show strong signs of growth (not evident at present), the stock market is clearly still ahead of itself (even after the August decline).
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
Steve’s personal judgements and opinions incorporating observations, experience and gut feelings, going beyond the quantitative aspects of the Major Trend Index disciplines.
View From the North Country
Bear market or steep correction? Rising inflation could actually be good for equity market over next few years. FASB arrives at a decision which could spell the end to the repricing options practice by making it prohibitively expensive.
Smaller Caps Could Now Be Less Vulnerable Than Larger Caps
Smaller can managers are expected to see better times ahead. We predict that the next bull market will be led by small cap stocks. Historically, small caps now look fairly priced.
Is 1998 Like 1987?
Comparing 1987 versus 1997 and 1998 Advance/Decline lines: 1987’s actually didn’t look nearly as bad as today’s.
Major Trend Back to Negative
Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.
A Different Spin on Liquidity
Cash, as a percent of the NYSE market value, has never been lower.
Small Caps Relatively Cheap, But….
Small caps cheap relative to big caps, but neither is cheap on absolute basis...Unweighted to weighted P/E comparison at record discount.
Day To Day Stock Market Volatility
July started with a bang, but wound up a dud.
How Long Can This Go On?
Q4 1991 through Q2 1995, earnings growth and the stock market were in synch... not anymore.
Oversupply of Small Cap Orphans?
More than 500 new companies were added to the Russell 2000 at the mid-year index revision. Those issues deleted from the Russell indices become “orphans”.
July Mutual Fund Flows
According to the latest ICI report, fund managers investing in U.S equities were hoarding cash during the month of June. Percentage of assets rises to 4.1%, but still near all-time lows.
View From the North Country
Will the Asian Recession go global? “Gridlock is good", per a Jim Bianco study. Lottery mania, its history in the U.S., and potential effects on society. Also, the past suppression of women’s humor and “Northworst Airlines”.
Insider Block Measures—An Update
Insider big block transactions…still selling like mad.
Big Cap Dominance…More Striking After July Turmoil
The second half of 1998 got off with a thud for most managers. It is becoming increasingly evident that we are in a two tiered market—the only positive relative performance is from the largest of the big cap “growth” stocks.
View From the North Country
Asia Investing: One of the greatest investment opportunities of a lifetime. Don’t be near-sighted, being “early” can be a virtue.
The Asian Grand Opportunity...Buy On Weakness
Small addition to Emerging Country Funds in both portfolios with purchase of Greater China Fund.
Was Q2 a Tough One For You?
S&P 500 turned in a +3.3% return for Q2 and not many managers matched it. Only a mere 20% of the Leuthold sectors tracked outperformed it.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
