Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View From the North Country
Fed’s “Households” equity transaction data seems to infer Main Street investors continue to be big sellers of individual stocks.... WRONG!
March Madness
The market finished the first quarter of1998 strong, with the S&P 500 up 13.5% and the Dow Jones flirting with the 9000 milestone. Expectations for April? More of the same. Nothing on horizon to shake individual investors’ confidence.
March Mutual Fund Flows
Net inflows into U.S. equity funds extremely strong and now nearly 30% ahead of impressive 1997 levels. Fund flow controversy revisited. Still no consensus regarding December’s huge discrepancies between the top two data providers on the mutual fund cash flows.
Is It Small Cap Time?
After weighing the pluses and minuses, it still looks like big cap leadership to us...small caps lacking sponsorship and liquidity at this point.
Playing the Bounce Update: It Was Really a Tech Bounce
On a year to date basis, the entire bounce universe is up almost 13%, outperforming the S&P 500 (+8.1%). Maybe there was a bounce this year, but it really seems that Tech stocks were the driver.
Worth Noting
Steve’s thoughts on 1998 Stock Market Leadership, Volatility, Japan, Gold and Inflation.
View From the North Country
Equity managers increasingly fear the career danger of holding cash. Sagging stock prices have led a growing number high tech firms to reprice employee stock options. The importance of humor and laughter in life and in business.
The February Sweet Spot
Major Trend Index turned Positive in early February...Expect market to move higher over next few months as long as Main Street keeps fueling Wall Street.
February Mutual Fund Flows
Domestic equity inflows for 1998 lag last year’s levels, but still very strong...However, bond and money market fund flows YTD are significantly ahead of1997’s pace.
The Mixed Messages Of January
It was a shaky 1998 start, but the U.S. equity markets got it together after the big hit on January 9th (-3%).
Playing The Bouce Update: It Was Really A Tech Bounce
We did not employ nor endorse this tactical strategy in late 1997.
1998 Day To Day Volatility: Just Like 1997...So Far
In January, the S&P 500, on a close to close basis moved up 1% or more on four trading days and down 1% or more on two trading days and down 1% or more on two trading days (January 9 was down 2.97%).
Earnings Momentum From A Market Perspective
Jim Floyd maintains a continuing earnings momentum monitor for a universe of 3000 stocks, breatking the universe down into tiers based on market capitalization.
Yes, The Unconventional Portfolio Bought Gold Stocks
In last month's publication, it was noted that the Unconventional Asset Allocation Portfolio was establishing a 3% position in gold stocks.
Bottom Fishing In Asia
Back in November 1997, the bottom fishing expedition began in the devastated Asian markets.
January Mutual Fund Flows
Net inflows into equity funds lagged somewhat behind last January. We estimate U.S. focus equity funds experienced still strong net inflows of $17 billion, but foreign focus net inflows may have been less than $1 billion (net redemptions in the first few weeks).
View From The North Country
Each February, this publication, sometimes with help from our readers, constructs a series of "Fearless Forecasts".
Where Will The January-February Liquidity Flood Go?
Regardless of conflicting trends being reported in December by AMG and Trim Tabs, our studies conclude that December net inflows into U.S. focus funds (not foreign funds) exceeded December 1996.
Welcome to 1998
The new year has started with a disappointing thud rather than the liquidity induced bang expected by the consensus.
Emerging Markets: Bottom Fishing
Some emerging markets continued to submerge in December, others stabilized and a few rallied.
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