Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.

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Using the broad sector component stocks, Jim Floyd calculates the Leuthold Weighted year over year, quarterly operating earnings gain (or loss) utilizing the companies in each sector.

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Only two of the twenty trading days in May closed with moves of 1% or more.

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Insiders’ Big Block Transactions: latest reading indicating net selling at 16 year high.

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  A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them.

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Remembering Mister Johnson, the founding spirit of Fidelity. A “Balanced” mutual fund up 8% in a single day? Also, a reader response to last month’s comments on a new NYSE rule and how good were the good old days?

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Mutual fund investors’ enthusiasm cooled during May’s volatile stock market, leaving monthly total equity fund inflows at the lowest level since March 1997.

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If you’ve been in this business 30 years you’ll remember Adam Smith’s “The Money Game”. Read it again. Those who never read it, find a copy. Also, the results of our 1998 reader survey and a parody worthy of the “Bawl Street Journal” provides the first totally honest daily stock market report.

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Late April preliminary real GDP estimate was a strong 4.2% gain, with the lowest inflation adjustment in 34 years. The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged from the prior quarter for the first time since 1954.

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There are signs of an earnings slowdown especially within the big cap arena...small cap earnings have held up relatively better.

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Net inflows into U.S. equity funds for April are estimated to be down slightly from March but still running almost 40% ahead of a year ago.

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Stock market volatility, U.S. savings rate, gold stocks, Y2K, the software engineer shortage and stock options.

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A March 30, 1998, WSJ piece reflects the optimism of this market, substituting earnings for dividends and ignoring any potential equity risk premiums.

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The market finished the first quarter of1998 strong, with the S&P 500 up 13.5% and the Dow Jones flirting with the 9000 milestone. Expectations for April? More of the same. Nothing on horizon to shake individual investors’ confidence.

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Net inflows into U.S. equity funds extremely strong and now nearly 30% ahead of impressive 1997 levels. Fund flow controversy revisited. Still no consensus regarding December’s huge discrepancies between the top two data providers on the mutual fund cash flows.

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Among the Big Cap Bounce qualifiers, it did look like there was a bounce in January and February, but closer examination reveals it was really a Tech bounce.

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Jim Floyd attempts to answer which is more meaningful: reported, operating, or cash flow? Also, what best describes current earnings reporting requirements (FASB 128)?

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Fed’s “Households” equity transaction data seems to infer Main Street investors continue to be big sellers of individual stocks.... WRONG!

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Equity managers increasingly fear the career danger of holding cash. Sagging stock prices have led a growing number high tech firms to reprice employee stock options. The importance of humor and laughter in life and in business.

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Major Trend Index turned Positive in early February...Expect market to move higher over next few months as long as Main Street keeps fueling Wall Street.

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