Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.

• Read more

In September, 19% of the trading days qualified as high volatility days.

• Read more

Index fund net inflows remained low in September at about $1.1 billion (estimated). This is almost flat compared to the $1.2 billion in August.

• Read more

After two weeks of net outflows in August, the public returned to the mutual fund trough in September.

• Read more

Ten largest S&P 500 stocks had latest four quarter earnings rise +19%, compared with top 25 companies +15%, top 100 companies +13% and bottom 200 companies +4%.

• Read more

Major Trend Index faded to High Neutral in August, but will likely be propelled back to Positive by strong September 2nd market…Valuations still off the charts, but new valuation era looks like it’s still with us.

• Read more

Margin debt was $116 billion in July, up from $80 billion a year ago. This marks a record high in terms of dollars, as a percent of GDP, and as a percentage of total stock market value.

• Read more

Doubtful, at this point. Relative performance “catch up” not conclusive...Abnormal downdraft in large caps a big contributing factor.

• Read more

In August, there were two weeks of net outflows from U.S. focus equity funds, the most recent was so small it hardly shows up on the chart.

• Read more

Is Warren Buffett doing some very significant selling? I think this might be the case. Leuthold Group three part series on deflation will be sent to clients in September and October. Also, the 10th Anniversary of 1987’s stock market peak: two important “then” and “now” comparisons.

• Read more

In August, a very high 38% of the trading days qualified as high volatility days.

• Read more

Technically, even after July’s move, the relative strength line is closer to breaking down (below 70) than it is to making a new high above the 1995 peak (above 80).

• Read more

While the long term implications of a capital gains tax cut might be bullish, I would expect the intermediate term impact to be negative.

• Read more

For July, our estimate is that $18 billion flowed into U.S. focus equity funds. This would be the largest monthly inflow since January 1997, and far more than last July’s depressed $3.7 billion.

• Read more

The balanced budget: politicians had to move fast because the budget looked as if it might balance itself without their help. Wage Inflation: our belief that it has been accelerating has been wrong, particularly in Q2.

• Read more

Cash no longer considered to be part of an equity portfolio...risk is considered to be the consequence of underperforming the S&P 500, not the impact of a bear market.

• Read more

Today’s great bull market has broken most past behavioral guidelines and precedents. It’s a different animal and could terminate as most manias do...with little forewarning and a waterfall decline.

• Read more

In this year’s 147 trading days (through July 31) there have been 29 days with up moves of 1% or more. Four of those days were up over 2%.

• Read more

Goldilocks economy keeps rolling along, but earnings recovery has been nothing short of spectacular.

• Read more

There has been a declining trend in weekly inflows since early January. The strongest seasonal flows are in the first 3 1/2 months of a year (through April 15). 1997’s strongest inflows may now be history.

• Read more