Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Major Trend Index Improved, But Still Negative
It still looks like a bear market to us or, at minimum, an old bull market that is topping out.
Valuation Considerations
S&P 500 normalized PE and yield in top (worst) decile of 1926 to date data history. From these valuation levels 12 month total returns average a big fat zero.
Volatility Update
1994 market volatility no greater than 1992 or 1993. Annual volatility for DJIA and S&P 500 remains at all time low levels. What is going on? An attempt is made to explain.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Cash still flowing into equity mutual funds, but net cash flows contracted some in June. New equity supply also shrinks some.
View From the North Country
Our associates at Weeden & Co. have made the big switch, moving their headquarters and trading center from New York City to Greenwich.
Major Trend Index Still Negative….But July Market Action Improved
Major Trend remains in negative territory but market action (both stocks and bonds) improved in July. Short term, both stocks and bonds may continue to rally.
Growing Investor Frustration
An extract from Leuthold & Anderson’s second quarter client letter.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Major Trend moves deeper into negative territory...Commodity Diffusion Index move above 70% does not inspire us either.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Cash still flowing into Equity Mutual Funds...Net cash flows steady in April and May.
View From the North Country
The dithering dollar. Did we miss our golden opportunity? Some think there is current hope for Social Security reform. Is new NASDAQ rule an uptick or upchuck? The bears are howling.
Commodity Inflation Appears To Be On the Upswing
Diffusion Index breaks above its 70% danger zone, signaling higher commodity inflation ahead?
View From the North Country
How Bush and the boys rescued the banks without busting the FDIC, fiscal responsibility in the 1993 Congress is examined and what the recent surge in commodity inflation means.
1994: A Dull Summer?
Downside equity market risk viewed as significant: still believe 90% probability we are in early stages of a bear market. Could be a dull summer?
Supply/Demand Considerations
Money still flowing into equity mutual funds. AMG's response to the huge differences between mutual fund cash flow data provided by AMG in April and the numbers reported by ICI.
Supply/Demand Considerations
New equity supply running $1.5 billion per week, with U.S. focus equity fund inflows now about $0.7 billion per week (no longer in balance).
Defensive Sectors: A Performance Check
A performance check on defensives for the last two months.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros in April
Leuthold "Polling the Pros" reveals that the consensus looks for a correction on a three month basis. One year poll has more balanced outlook.
A Fresh Look at Upside and Downside Potential
Even after the March correction, this valuation exercise uncovers only limited upside (+15% to 1987 peaks) and significant downside (-25%, back to median valuations).
View From the North Country
Economic expansion now 40 months old...Yes, it has been somewhat anemic, but nevertheless it may be well past middle age. Getting real about risk: risk is not the same as volatility.
Major Trend Index Still Says Bear
Major Trend still in "negative" territory and continues to deteriorate. Downside equity market risk viewed as significant.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
