Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Are Coke and Mickey Mouse “Forever”?
The one thing that we can count on about the future is that it will not be the same as today. While a diamond may be forever, a Blue Chip stock is not...not even Disney, not even Coca Cola and certainly not IBM.
A Second Reminder, Take Your Phone To The Beach
I think August will be a month in which some big players start taking big money out of the stock market game, defensively preparing for Wall Street's traditional hurricane season.
OCO Advance/Decline Line Update
This version of market breadth continues to present a more bearish picture than the other A/D measures.
Early Warning Index
This aspect of our work has not been particularly helpful recently, even though it at times has been quite productive in years past. We can't squeeze blood out of a turnip and in recent years we haven't been able to squeeze a 7%-10% correction out of the low volatility market.
For Technical Types
I have been employing market breadth data for 32 years, tracking and interpreting a number of variations of advance/decline calculations. Here are some of my conclusions about advance/decline studies.
View from the North Country
Wall Street anticipates relatively dull markets in July and August, especially August. It doesn't always work out that way. Also, Polling the Pros in June, a re-examiniation of the gold rally and an update on gambling stocks.
A Royal (Blue) Look At Growth Stocks (And Value Too)
When value investing requires so much effort just to locate purchase candidates, you might want to re-evaluate your equity sector asset allocation strategy if you have that option. What do the growth stocks look like?
Bored and Still Cautious
July has been proclaimed the most boring month by The Boring Institute. From a stock market standpoint, I think June should have been so designated.
The Mutual Fund Factor
The public continues to roll the money into mutual funds and Wall Street continues to roll out the new equity offerings. The supply/demand standoff more or less continued in June.
View from the North Country
Client Questions...Gold: Is It A New Bull Market?...Gambling Stock Update...The 50 Largest Non-Financial Multinationals, A Survey By The Economist
Sticking With The Disciplines: Caution
Our disciplines don't currently provide much latitude, and the disciplines have usually proven to be better than the instincts. Thus, this publication's attitude remains cautious.
The Mutual Fund Factor
The public continues to roll the money into mutual funds and Wall Street continues to roll out the new equity offerings. The supply/demand standoff more or less continued in May.
Worth Noting
May supply/demand, seasonal investing and a study of Beta.
View from the North Country
Client Questions...What Do You Think About Gold?...How Municipal Bonds Compare With Taxables...Don't Short The Gambling Stocks Yet
Long Term Message Remains: Caution
As of the May 3 tabulation of the Major Trend Index, the caution flag remains flying.
The Supply/Demand Standoff
The public continues to roll the money into mutual funds and Wall Street continues to roll out the new equity offerings. The Supply/Demand standoff more or less continued in April.
A Most Dangerous Game
Portfolio managers themselves are increasingly cautious towards the stock market, with the great majority very concerned about the Clinton economic program and very recently shaken by the Phillip Morris debacle.
The Message of Phillip Morris
Six months ago, this stock was at the top of most institutions' core holding list. Smashed and broken, it's now a major portfolio embarrassment. Once again, the often forgotten message from the past echoes: No Growth Is Permanent.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros (and Cons)s
In March, polls were taken in Portland, Seattle, Denver and Los Angeles respectively. We recently incorporated a new question in the survey, requesting a projection of S&P 500 annualized total returns over the next 10 years. The responses have been quite interesting.
View from the North Country
In terms of outstanding investment returns from U.S. markets, the last 10 years have been close to unprecedented but the next decade in this business won't be so easy. This is what our historical research and common sense tells us.