Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
What Might “Cause” a 1994 Bear Market?
Some 1994 potential catalysts which could shift stock market psychology.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Bond funds experienced new redemptions in March, but U.S. focus equity funds still experiencing significant inflows.
The Bounce Strategy: Not So Good This Time
The best results were recorded in October, before we bought the "Bounce" stocks. The only positive note is that our subsets were not down as much as the S&P 500 over this five month period.
View From the North Country
Is sophisticated the same as smart? Market neutral operations are supposed to involve little or no market risk, so how could the entire asset base go down the drain?
Major Trend Index Even More Negative
Major Trend Index turned "negative" March 8 and has continued to deteriorate.
Stock Market Observations
February was a tough month for the stock market. Stock Market performance during various GDP and earnings growth environments and what we currently view as the most likely scenarios for 1994.
The Supply/Demand Outlook for Equities
New equity supply reached record levels in 1993, but in January the flow of new equity offerings dried up. Mutual fund flows not as strong as in January, but pretty close. International flow still strong.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros in February
Whenever we have a significant number of investment professionals gathered together, we ask their stock market opinion via ballot, subsequently reporting the results in this publication.
In Search of a New P/E Ratio
As we maintain our "tactically bullish" attitude toward equities, we continue to search for further signs that this market is not as overvalued as it appears.
Major Trend Index Fades to Neutral
Major Trend Index drops back to "neutral" territory. Don't jump the gun and assume the Index will fall to "negative".
1994 New Supply: Less Than Expected (So Far)
Don't expect to see net mutual fund redemptions yet. Public still expected to buy on weakness.
A Strong Economy and a Weak Stock Market?
The stock market often underperforms when the economy is strong and earnings are surging. It performs best when real GDP is negative and earnings are declining.
Building a "Catch Up" Future Earnings Model
Corporate downsizing related write-off’s, combined with significant accounting write-offs have thrown a monkey wrench into many earnings models, necessitating adjustment for recurring/non-recurring items. ROE/book value models have been rendered virtually useless. Model revisions are needed.
View From the North Country
A reader's case against higher gasoline taxes, followed by my case for consumption taxes and a membership pitch for The Concord Coalition. Did you watch the 56 commercial spots during the Super Bowl? Do you recall what these advertising works of art were selling?
Major Trend Index Improves Significantly In January
Major Trend Index moved now comfortably back in positive territory. 96 point decline February 4th is probably setting up a good tactical buying opportunity.
Mutual Fund Focus
It has been an incredible year for the fund industry, with unprecedented cash flows into all types of mutual funds.
View From the North Country
1994 Predictions: Stock market ultimately down, interest rates up, economy quite strong, inflation ticks up, budget deficit down, the dollar mixed, and an AFL team will win the Super Bowl.
1993: A New Low in S&P 500 Volatility
1993 was another dull volatility year for S&P 500, with record low 9.8% volatility. DJIA higher at 17%, but both far below typical volatility of 27%-29%.
Dreams and Nightmares - A Look at What Might Have Ben
In 1993, it surprisingly paid off to stick with last year's big winners and avoid 1992's big losers.
Major Trend Index Remains Neutral
The U.S. stock market environment seems to be pretty much a continuation of the 1993 frolics, big new supply and continued institutional buying as professionals invest new cash flow from individual investors who don't know that Wall Street can be a two way street.
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