Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Six months ago, this stock was at the top of most institutions' core holding list. Smashed and broken, it's now a major portfolio embarrassment. Once again, the often forgotten message from the past echoes: No Growth Is Permanent.

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This publication invests in the equity market on a sector basis, but many of the sectors employed are somewhat unorthodox. This approach has worked very well for us over the years. Our equity model has outperformed the S&P 500 over 70% of the time in the last 21 years. 1992, as a whole, was not a good year for our equity model, but it appears we are back in the groove. In the last four months, our equity portfolio is up 12%, compared to a 6% gain for the S&P 500. Year to date, our portfolio is up 4% compared to 2% for the S&P 500.

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So far, 1993 has been difficult year for most aggressive growth managers, especially those tilted toward health care issues.

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When President Clinton presented his economic package of proposals I happened to be out of the country, under a palm tree, reading Jimmy Buffet's first novel "Where is Joe Merchant?"

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Back in December, Steve Leuthold was interviewed by Thom Hartle, editor of Stocks and Commodities. The following is reprinted from the March 1993 issue of the magazine. Some readers may be surprised to learn the origins of The Leuthold Group were "technical" not fundamental. Some may also be surprised that our "Group leader", an avid student of long term economic and market history, is also a short term trading speculator.
Note: Leuthold's picture is somewhat dated, taken back in the days before the beard turned gray. We believe the color change is the direct result of this commodity trading.
 

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Each year, along about this time, this publication (with help from our readers) makes a series of "Fearless Forecasts".

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Close only counts in horseshoes. Our weight of the evidence approach to evaluating the health of the U.S. stock market improved in January, but did not break out of its six week "Neutral" range

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In early 1991, a continuing survey of client stock market attitudes was initiated (41 polls have been taken to date).

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The S&P 500 closed out January 1993 with a slight 0.7% gain.

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The parties are over, the cheering has stopped and the sax has been put back in the closet.

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An old stock market adage is that bull markets climb a "wall of worry".

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In early 1991, a continuing survey of client stock market attitudes was initiated (39 polls have been taken to date).

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Self examination can be good for the soul, so each January time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing appearing in our publication.

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For over a decade. The Leuthold Group has been sending its "Bounce List" containing stocks that appear to be subject to unusually heavy selling pressures late in the year.

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Last issue, this publication presented a study of historical stock market volatility based on the annual swings in the S&P 500 and the DJIA (low close to high close).

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It's a tradition. Each January we publish the gold book (Perception II) before this green book. So don't blame the post office.

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On December 21, the Major Trend Index moved into "neutral" territory.

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Much of the January Green Book is devoted to tradition, so too is this section.

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Polling the Pros on the West Coast…Lottery or Lootery?...Time for “Lean and Mean” In the “Not For Profit” Sector

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