Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Wall Street anticipates relatively dull markets in July and August, especially August. It doesn't always work out that way. Also, Polling the Pros in June, a re-examiniation of the gold rally and an update on gambling stocks.

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When value investing requires so much effort just to locate purchase candidates, you might want to re-evaluate your equity sector asset allocation strategy if you have that option. What do the growth stocks look like?

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July has been proclaimed the most boring month by The Boring Institute. From a stock market standpoint, I think June should have been so designated.

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The public continues to roll the money into mutual funds and Wall Street continues to roll out the new equity offerings. The supply/demand standoff more or less continued in June.

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Client Questions...Gold: Is It A New Bull Market?...Gambling Stock Update...The 50 Largest Non-Financial Multinationals, A Survey By The Economist

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Our disciplines don't currently provide much latitude, and the disciplines have usually proven to be better than the instincts. Thus, this publication's attitude remains cautious.

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The public continues to roll the money into mutual funds and Wall Street continues to roll out the new equity offerings. The supply/demand standoff more or less continued in May.

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May supply/demand, seasonal investing and a study of Beta.

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Client Questions...What Do You Think About Gold?...How Municipal Bonds Compare With Taxables...Don't Short The Gambling Stocks Yet

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As of the May 3 tabulation of the Major Trend Index, the caution flag remains flying.

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The public continues to roll the money into mutual funds and Wall Street continues to roll out the new equity offerings. The Supply/Demand standoff more or less continued in April.

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Portfolio managers themselves are increasingly cautious towards the stock market, with the great majority very concerned about the Clinton economic program and very recently shaken by the Phillip Morris debacle.

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Six months ago, this stock was at the top of most institutions' core holding list. Smashed and broken, it's now a major portfolio embarrassment. Once again, the often forgotten message from the past echoes: No Growth Is Permanent.

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In March, polls were taken in Portland, Seattle, Denver and Los Angeles respectively. We recently incorporated a new question in the survey, requesting a projection of S&P 500 annualized total returns over the next 10 years. The responses have been quite interesting.

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In terms of outstanding investment returns from U.S. markets, the last 10 years have been close to unprecedented but the next decade in this business won't be so easy. This is what our historical research and common sense tells us.

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The Major Trend Index deteriorated in March. This calculation was done prior to the Phillip Morris debacle. I'm rather sure the upcoming April 5 calculation will not be any better.

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Back in December, Steve Leuthold was interviewed by Thom Hartle, editor of Stocks and Commodities. The following is reprinted from the March 1993 issue of the magazine. Some readers may be surprised to learn the origins of The Leuthold Group were "technical" not fundamental. Some may also be surprised that our "Group leader", an avid student of long term economic and market history, is also a short term trading speculator.
Note: Leuthold's picture is somewhat dated, taken back in the days before the beard turned gray. We believe the color change is the direct result of this commodity trading.
 

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This publication invests in the equity market on a sector basis, but many of the sectors employed are somewhat unorthodox. This approach has worked very well for us over the years. Our equity model has outperformed the S&P 500 over 70% of the time in the last 21 years. 1992, as a whole, was not a good year for our equity model, but it appears we are back in the groove. In the last four months, our equity portfolio is up 12%, compared to a 6% gain for the S&P 500. Year to date, our portfolio is up 4% compared to 2% for the S&P 500.

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So far, 1993 has been difficult year for most aggressive growth managers, especially those tilted toward health care issues.

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When President Clinton presented his economic package of proposals I happened to be out of the country, under a palm tree, reading Jimmy Buffet's first novel "Where is Joe Merchant?"

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