S&P 500

Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.

• Read more

It’s been quite awhile since we’ve engaged in target practice (... and considering my 20/300 vision, the world is a much safer place for it).

• Read more

Another breadth blastoff gives us reasons for optimism that our bullish predictions for the end of the year will hold.

• Read more

Don’t expect a summer swoon, but stocks may make little progress until fall. Most of our bull market targets discussed in 2009—early 2010 have been achieved with the exception of a return to median bull market peaks based on normalized earnings (only 1.5% away).

• Read more

S&P Normalized valuations are already in the zone that have defined many important bull market tops.

• Read more

Doug Ramsey highlights the “point of recognition” in this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. This is the point of maximum market upthrust, the point at which even hardened pessimists become convinced that the economic recovery and bull market are for real.

• Read more

Economic growth is re-accelerating, but that growth is coming at a cost…price pressures are building significantly. Manufacturing prices are up along with commodity prices.

• Read more

If we look only at the past eleven years, 2000-2010, the S&P 500 has decisively underperformed the Russell 2000.

• Read more

Year-ahead stock market forecasts are now in hot demand, but of course are notoriously off the mark most years. Very long term forecasts (say, out to the end of the decade) are in virtually no demand, but are considerably easier to get close to the mark for those armed with the right tools. 

• Read more

2010 was better than it felt for the equity markets, but while 2011 may be better for the economy, it might not be as strong for the equity markets. Could the bull market be running out of milestones?

• Read more

The latest bull market has now essentially matched the returns for all bull market recoveries dating back to 1900. Remarkably, it has accomplished this in only half the normal time frame.

• Read more

This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look back at and updates some our favorite charts from 2010.

• Read more

Now that the election is over and QE2 in the works, resist the temptation to “sell the news.” We expect to see the market rally through the end of the year. Sentiment still benign and valuations still attractive.

• Read more

Stock/bond Risk-reward relationship beginning to return to normal. Back in Q1 2009, performance differential between S&P 500 and 10 year T-bonds was at generational lows. In prior periods of bond superiority, stocks ultimately came soaring back. Expect to see stocks do much better over next 5 years.

• Read more

We turn our attention to the domestic equity markets to determine where market history has hidden its seasonal landmines. 

• Read more

The relationship between equity mutual fund cash flow and performance of the equity markets can be reduced to two basic “golden rules” of interpretation.

• Read more

Don’t fear deflation. Leuthold historical studies show mild deflation can actually be a good environment for the stock market.

• Read more

This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the characteristics of past bull market recoveries. Using a variety of historical comparisons, the current recovery is put into some perspective. The majority of these comparisons seem to indicate the current recovery still has a ways to go.

• Read more

The “New Normal”, just like the late 1990’s “New Era”, will likely fade from popular jargon over time. Counter to “New Normal” reasoning, the Consumer Discretionary sector has demonstrated remarkable performance.

• Read more

In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric Bjorgen looks at the cyclical nature of P/E ratios. The normalized P/E ratio follows an expansion/contraction cycle that has been repeated five times since 1926, but the interesting thing is that the cycles have lengthened significantly over time.

• Read more