Performance

Small and Mid Caps continued to outperform in March, with the S&P Small and Mid Cap both producing positive returns.

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Investors reversed course from January with several of last month’s top performers becoming February’s worst performers.

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Market character changed in February, with investors focusing on less risky groups. High beta stocks, which had been leading for most of 2003 and early 2004, were the big laggers in February. Winners in February were conservative low beta issues.

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This month’s “Of Special Interest” presents a critical review of what we thought was the best of The Leuthold Group’s work in 2003 and what was the worst.

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The equity markets ended the year with a bang, turning in very strong December performance.

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After a string of three consecutive down market years, the closing bell on the eve of the recent New Year put to bed the first annual gain for the U.S. stock market since 1999.

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The equity markets finished strong in November, after slumping throughout much of the month.

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Economy picking up steam in second half. Early Q3 GDP estimate much better than expected.

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The equity markets turned in strong October performance. Only 4 of 150 groups had negative performance in October.

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No! We are not bearish on the market, but think a relatively minor correction (6%-8%?) could develop before year end. Market has moved up quickly, especially in October. So a pull-back is certainly plausible.

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The equity market took a breather in September.

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The equity market continued its strong performance in August.

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The equity market resumed its strong performance in July.

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After two strong months, the markets cooled down some in June.

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The stock market was very strong in May, following a strong April.

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The stock market was very strong in April across the entire market cap spectrum.

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The S&P 500 was up 0.8% in March, but ended Q1 down 3.6%.

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On March 11th, the stock market made a new low for the year. But in anticipation of a final resolution with Saddam Hussein, the market bounced off those lows and closed higher for eight trading days in a row.

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The grand 20+ year secular bull market in bonds is probably topping out.

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The stock market is off to a poor start in 2003, with the S&P 500 down 4.4%, and the DJIA off 5.4%.

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