Performance

Not even the mighty techs are immune to saturation, overcapacity, cyclicality, and fierce competition.

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Stock market returns for U.S. Presidents while in office. (Whig Party Presidents produced best average returns!)

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U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but see signs of a slowdown ahead...Increasing odds of a recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology stocks falter.

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The market conditions looked stronger at the beginning of September, but warnings of disappointing earnings quickly drove the market down.

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October carries a reputation with investors as the “cruelest  month”, but statistically, September is most likely to be a downer. Paid To Play Portfolio: Now up an unbelievable 57% YTD. Tech Sunset? Professionals seem to be lightening their load in technology and communication commitments, now targeting a market weight.

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The U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but there are now more signs of a slowdown ahead. Global economy is slowing down even more.

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Technology stocks came roaring back in August, with the broad Information Technology sector racking up a 17.4% gain.

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The spurts and dips seen on the chart of our Internet Insanity Index are mouthwatering to both bulls and bears alike.

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Economy still has considerable momentum, but there are signs of a slowdown in the second half. Still expect further Fed tightening. Expect inflation rates of change to soon peak, then cool off in Q4.

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The DJIA was the winner among the major stock market indices with its small 0.7% gain. Most of the measures were down in July...the NASDAQ lost 5.0% and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%. Despite the overall market weakness, there were still several groups that did well.

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After a big bounce in June (+21%), the Internet Insanity Index came back to earth in July with a 7.7% loss.

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· Still expect one more rate hike due to rekindling of stock market enthusiasm, prospects of accelerating inflation, and reported wage inflation numbers understated.

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Technology stocks led the market again in June, after being hit hard in May.

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This group rallied in June along with many of the other Technology related groups. However, for the YTD, this Internet Insanity Index is still down more than 21%.

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 Year 2000 is half over...Leuthold Paid To Play equity portfolio concentrated in Energy and Health Care up 7% in June, +33% YTD. Also, today’s huge valuation dichotomy.

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Despite the painful tech market in May, with the S&P 500 down 2.2% and the NASDAQ down 11.9%, there were several groups performing well.

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Despite weaker economic news, still expect Fed to bump rates up at least once more.

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The Internet Insanity Index has continued to deflate rapidly with a 17.3% loss recorded in May.

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Further Fed tightening to come…..Next few month inflation news likely to be scary.

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Technology stocks were particularly hard hit in April, with nine of the 15 worst performing groups being Tech related.

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