Performance

The month of love left most tech investors and small cap investors broken-hearted.

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This has been the greatest bull market in history. Investors coming into the market in the last few years have garnered unbelievable returns. Over the last five years, the S&P 500 has compounded at an annual rate of 24.0%.

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Measured from the recent market month end lows (August 1998), the NASDAQ Composite has surged 67.1%, beating 86% of Leuthold equity sectors over this time frame.

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1998 Inflation Projections: CPI expected to end 1999 about unchanged from year end 1998 levels (year over year change of 0.0%).

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For 1998, Internet beat all other sectors, posting a 121% return.  Tech...Big Ten (+75%) next best sector in 1998.

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Self-examination can be good for the soul if not the ego, so each January, time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations appearing in our publications. We include both the good...and the bad.

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At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral.  U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.

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As is typical, December was a weird month for the stock market, as year-end cross currents swirled. Market breadth, as measured by advance/decline studies, spurted late in December, but lagged for the month.

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This was a year where the super cap growth stocks, especially the tech stocks, blew away most active managers. Our Technology...Big Ten sector (10 largest caps) was up 75% for the year. The high P/E tier of the Royal Blue Index was up an unprecedented 57%.

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The following table compares the performance of the Russell 2000 Index (since its inception in 1979) with the S&P S00. Over this entire period, the Russell has outperformed the S&P in ten of the twenty years (S0% of the time), producing a slightly lower annual compound rate, 12.4%, versus 13.6% for the S&P 500.

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Technology sectors leading this advancing market with double-digit returns in November.

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All in all, inflation pressures are expected to remain minimal. Through 1999, the CPI and PPI will likely remain between an environment of mild inflation and mild deflation.

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The evils of October vanished after the first six trading days. Small can stocks cheap relative to large caps but not cheap relative to their own history.

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Technology-related sectors took lead in October rally. Small caps lagged for the month, but came on strong in last two weeks.

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At current levels U.S. T-bonds are no longer viewed as attractive. U.S. T-bond potential downside now about matches upside potential. Our 17 year old 5% T-bond target was achieved last month.

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Phones, Drugs, Biotech, and Utilities among leading equity sectors in Q3.

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S&P 500 and DJIA down 15% in August, but outperformed 75% of 84 sectors.

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T-bond ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...Yields could back up should Asia outlook improve, or equity market rally significantly.

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In all, only 10 sectors posted gains during July...including a strong 3.0% gain in Cable.

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S&P 500 turned in a +3.3% return for Q2 and not many managers matched it. Only a mere 20% of the Leuthold sectors tracked outperformed it.

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