Performance
Big Cap Dominance Warping Performance Measures
Institutions' preference for liquid big caps have made it very difficult for most portfolio managers to keep up with the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ year to date.
Scanning the Markets
Excellent stock picking combined with good sector performance to drive the live Paid to Play Equity Portfolio to a strong 11.8% gain in June. Only four sectors outperformed our live portfolio.
The Not So Merry Month of May
May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.
Scanning the Markets
May was a tough month, with only 18% of the sectors beating the DJIA (-1.8%) and 19% beating the S&P 500 (-1.9%).
Inside the Bond Market
Asian crisis not helping much (yet), putting brakes on strong U.S. economy (except on earnings)...Asia (including Japan) will become heavier “drag” on U.& in next six months...Inflation likely to increase slightly but still viewed as tame.
Scanning the Markets
Interest rate jitters certainly had its impact felt among the sectors, with some of the interest sensitive groups getting hit hard.
Bond Market Summary
Near term, bond market now stabilizing after being roughed up during most of April…We see no imminent Fed loosening or tightening in the cards at this point.
March Madness
The market finished the first quarter of1998 strong, with the S&P 500 up 13.5% and the Dow Jones flirting with the 9000 milestone. Expectations for April? More of the same. Nothing on horizon to shake individual investors’ confidence.
Scanning the Markets
March performance was outstanding, with seven of the eight active sectors beating the S&P 500 return.
Bond Market Summary
Near term, bond market now stabilizing after being somewhat ahead of itself...No Fed loosening or tightening in the cards at this point.
Bond Market Summary
Asian crisis not yet applying brakes to strong U.S. economy...Asia should be bigger “drag” on U.S. in next six months. Near term, bond market still correcting from being somewhat extended.
Playing The Bouce Update: It Was Really A Tech Bounce
We did not employ nor endorse this tactical strategy in late 1997.
Playing The Bouce Update
This publication has chosen not to employ this late 1997-early 1998 tactical trading strategy.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
What we did well and not so well...
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group’s equity market sectors ranked by November performance.
Scanning the Markets
Only nine of the 75 sectors tracked moved higher in October. Small caps shifted back to underperformers by going down more than the Big Cap Indices. Technology was devastated.
Bond Market Summary
Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade. Inflation outlook positive.
Scanning the Markets
Contrary to August, when the S&P 500 was beaten by 93% of the sectors tracked, September saw more normal action.
Is Move in Secondary Stocks For Real?...Yes
Small caps continued to outperform in September’s strong market. Improving small cap earnings and sales momentum. Improving sponsorship (so far) from aggressive and emerging net fund inflows.
Scanning the Markets
Big caps lost favor in August, as the S&P 500 beat only five of the 72 sectors, while the DJIA only managed to outperform two sectors.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
