Performance

Doubtful, at this point. Relative performance “catch up” not conclusive...Abnormal downdraft in large caps a big contributing factor.

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On a YTD basis, the DJIA and S&P 500 indices have now beaten more than 75% of the sectors we track. Big caps have so far clearly dominated over most of 1997.

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How long can the Goldilocks’ economy keep going? The current economic expansion (at 25 quarters) is long in the tooth by historical standards. Inflation outlook improved. Shortage of treasury bonds to become a reality?

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In June, the DJIA and S&P 500 again exerted their dominance, as each outperformed about 70% of the sectors we track. On a YTD basis, these two market indices have now beaten about 80% of the sectors.

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Last 15 years have been the best 15 year stock performance period ever recorded. Many of today's investors expect this to be the norm. Next 3, 5, 10, or 15 year time periods cannot be expected to rival current returns.

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There was a significant role reversal in May, as small caps significantly outperformed large caps. As a result, about 65% of the sectors we track outperformed the DJIA and S&P 500.

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It will happen again! Relative overweights in small caps will be an advantage instead of disadvantage to portfolio managers. Small caps can grow earnings faster.

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Impressive rally did not alter Negative status of Major Trend Index. S&P 500 beat 90% of sectors in April. Earnings holding up well in Q1, but margins likely to shrink as the year progresses.

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Narrowness in the stock market was very evident in April, as the DJIA’s 6.3% gain was better than 70 of the 78 sectors we track (90%).

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Breadth improved in March, with 41% of the sectors outperforming both the S&P 500 and the DJIA. During the first two months of 1997, only 18 of 71 sectors were able to outperform these measures.

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Economic expansion long in the tooth...Fed working to slow down the economy...Inflation cool...U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields...strong dollar should continue to stimulate foreign bond buying.

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Jim Floyd’s breakdown of eleven broad sectors within the S&P 500. The S&P 500 experienced 24 component stock changes during 1996. New component additions were not balanced within the sectors by the stock deletions.

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Year to date, both the DJIA and the S&P 500 have outperformed 55 of the 73 sectors we track (75%).

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Bond rally should be rekindled by mid-year. U.S. yields remain relatively high compared to foreign yields. Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months.

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The tables on the next two pages are performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by January's performance.

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Over the last three years, capitalization weighted index funds (mostly S&P modeled) have been outperforming about 90% of the actively managed equity mutual funds.

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This is Jim Floyd's sector breakdown of eleven broad sectors within the S&P 500. 

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The tables on the next two pages are performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by 1996 performance.

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Thanks to the quantitative disciplines (Sector Selection Scores), sector calls and shifts in equity portfolios were mostly on the mark in 1996...except for bad late 1995-1996 Playing The Bounce episode.

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Technology was a big winner in November, with 8 of the top 20 sectors being technology related.

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