Performance

Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

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In April, the technology stocks came roaring back to life. Of the 20 best performing groups during the month, 14 were technology related.

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Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

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March was an ugly month for the market as a whole, with the S&P 500 diving 6.4% and the NASDAQ plummeted 14.5%. Unlike February, the decline in March was pretty broad based.

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How have sharp declines of the past year affected performance over longer time horizons?

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The 10 best and 10 worst performing equity groups over the last twelve months.

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Is a market timing strategy superior to “buy and hold”? You can prove anything with numbers. Despite that, there does appear to be a supportive case for tactical asset allocation, or market timing.

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Bonds still performing better than stocks in 2001, especially Junk Bonds. Commodity Diffusion Index declined sharply to 42%. Historically this is a significant positive for stocks and bonds.

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Once again it looks like the market turned on a dime. In January, we saw many big losers from 2000 bounce back. But in February, things reversed again.

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Earnings are declining and economy has slowed. Just why are we buying stocks?

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Strong mutual fund inflows in January helped propel High Yield bond returns up 7% for the month. Yield spreads narrowed significantly relative to Quality Corporates but remain very attractive.

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Quite a reversal of fortune in January, compared to last year. Of the 20 best performers in January, 13 groups are still down over the last twelve months.

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The underlying decline in valuations and tech stock weightings in the cap weighted market indices probably has further to go in 2001.

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Our annual review of our significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations…..the good and the bad. Also, an evaluation of 2000 performance: Paid To Play equity portfolio, and asset allocation portfolios.

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U.S economy weakening faster than expected: Global economy also slowing. Increasing odds of a hard landing in 2001.

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Investors are likely happy to see 2000 come to an end. While much of the focus was on the crushing defeat of Tech stocks last year, there were many pockets of strength.

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It was not too hard for our equity groups to outperform during November, as 83 of our 132 equity groups (63%) outperformed the S&P 500, with 41 of these turning in flat or positive returns (31% of all groups). Compared to the NASDAQ, 113 of the groups (86%) performed better.

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U.S. economy losing momentum, global economy slowing more…..Increasing odds of recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology falters.

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The DJIA was up 3.0% in October, but most other market indices fell. The S&P 500 was down 0.5%, with the NASDAQ continuing to trail the pack with an 8.3% loss during the month.

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