Performance

A rundown of the June and year to date sector leaders.

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Bonds rallied strongly in June but did not make new highs. However, it is only a matter of time. Look for a test of the highs in July. Also, introducing “Inflation Watch,” a new regular feature that will report on our ongoing inflation research work.

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The stock market and bond market diverged rather sharply in May, with most market averages up about 5%, while bonds moved lower, especially long T-bonds, which fell over 6%.

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May saw the T-bond market come down into our buying zone and we are buyers in this issue. We expect 7% on T-bonds before 1986 is over (now 8.50%) and maybe lower. The stock and bond markets do not have to move together as May clearly demonstrated.

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From a sector standpoint, perhaps the most notable development of the past thirty days was the strong action of many smaller technology stocks. This strong relative performance has also carried over into the first few days of May.

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April was a consolidation month and we think there could be weakness in the last half of May, carrying T-bonds to the 8%-8.25% level. However, we look for 7% before 1986 is over and possibly even 6%.

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Among the sectors we regularly monitor, the big winners in March were Medical Technology, Shelter and Ethical Drugs. High Tech sector issues and the Oil Patch sector were down on the month while the popular averages scored 5%-7% gains.

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This publication monitors and regularly charts twenty market sectors and only six of these managed to beat the DJIA in February.

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The current advance was an unusually slow starter, but November really cooked. The DJIA was up 7%, the S&P 500 up 6.5% with the Value Line up about the same, evidence that the market is broadening out.

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About half the April gain to peak levels was lost in the last few days of the month. Short-term, a long T-bond trading range of 11.30%-11.70% is expected, but the Major Trend remains bullish. A break in the deficit impasse could kick off a new upsurge.

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February was a healthy consolidation. Higher prices are expected shorter-term and longer-term. The Major Trend Index continues to register powerful readings. The Early Warning Index of intermediate peaks remains positive, but the margin is narrower than a month ago.

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Bond returns are not expected to keep pace with stocks over the next 6-12 months. Shorter-term we remain cautious toward the bond market, but would become aggressive should it appear Reagan and Congress are coming together on the deficit.

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On a traditional broad sector basis, only three of the eleven sectors we track recorded positive returns in 1984. Looking at our Conceptual Sectors, there were eight of our sometimes unorthodox stock groupings with positive total returns.

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Shorter-term, the decline may continue. Our Early Warning Work registered a negative reading Oct. 30 but is now neutral. At least, a trading opportunity may develop soon. Our focus is on the deficit dilemma. The Major Trend Index continues to read positive, but down a bit from last month.

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The DJIA and S&P were unchanged for the month while the unweighted indices declined one or two percent. For two months in a row now, equities have lagged far behind bonds. There were however some groups and sectors that performed pretty well in October.

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The pre-election target of 11.5% for T-Bonds was essentially achieved. Now the market looks overextended and a period of consolidation or correction is expected in November. Ultimately though, the upward move is expected to continue.

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From a portfolio performance standpoint, the stock market fizzled out in September. The market averages posted small losses for the month and those who were anticipating another surge on the bright side were sadly disappointed.

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We look for higher bond prices by the end of October, once the Treasury financing is out of the way. Pension fund lock-up buyers remain a strong positive factor. But what is really needed is some post-election indication of political fiscal responsibility.

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In some ways, the bond market is more impressive than the stock market. We continue to think it may be a brand-new ball game for a while with a growing number of new players. Throw out your old rule books? Our pre-election expectation for T-Bonds is 11%-12%.

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In many ways the bond market is more impressive than the stock market. In some ways I think it is a brand-new ball game with a growing number of new players. Throw out your old rule books. We have raised our maximum pre-election expectation for T-Bonds to 10%, up from 11%.

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