Performance
Still Not Many Charging Bulls Around
Perhaps the healthiest thing of all about June in Wall Street was that nobody got very excited about it. The bearish contingent has backed off a bit, but I sure don’t see many charging bulls...not even very many sauntering bulls.
Scanning the Markets
Technology jumped back up to a position of market leadership in June with eight of our technology or technology dominated sectors were up 8% or more, compared to the 4.3% gain for the S&P 500. However, Airlines led the parade with a 13% gain.
Bond Market Summary
A month ago, institutional bond buyers were skittish, nibbling a little, but mostly sitting on their hands waiting for lower prices. As it turned out, the bond market didn’t need rain, nor did it need easier money and lower short-term rates.
Scanning the Markets
Not much happened in May and the market has surged these first three trading days of June. May action is now very old news. Maybe you should just skip this section this month.
Scanning the Markets
It was a very dull month in our world of sectors, just as it was for the stock market as a whole.
Bond Market Summary
The first week of April brought a lethargic rally in T-bonds, but prices faded fast around mid-month, stabilized for a week and then sold off again at month end.
Bond Market Summary
T-bonds slide 4-5 points in March, with corporates holding up better. Bonds look good, but T-bonds are expected to suffer from renewed inflation fears, dollar weakness, deficit concerns and maybe big foreign selling.
Scanning the Markets: February
February was an outstanding month for many secondary stocks and sectors. Our Emerging Growth quantitative theme turned in the best performance. Smaller technology stocks also did very well, but so did a number of growth consumer issues.
Scanning the Markets
For a change, the Value Line Index and the NASDAQ performed better than the S&P 500 and DJIA. Inflation beneficiaries, High Yield groups and Value stocks did relatively well. Big Growth stocks (especially Drugs) performed poorly. Small technology stocks were also beat up again.
Bond Market Summary
Much has been made about the CRB Index making a new high on November 27. We are very skeptical. Comparisons herein will demonstrate the warping in this index. I think we are now getting an inflation false alarm, but at this point the signals are mixed.
Scanning the Markets
A performance run down for our sectors, including experimental sectors, ranked by October performance. Most equity sectors went down significantly more than the S&P 500 during October.
The Tail Continues to Wag the Dog
Our view remains unchanged in terms of prudent investment strategy. While trading opportunities may abound in the next few weeks, both long and short, the stock market is downright dangerous.
Scanning the Markets
A performance run down for our sectors ranked by September performance, with 3rd quarter and year to date performance also included.
Bond Market Summary
The bond market held its own in the middle two weeks of September, but the first week and the last week of the month were downright nasty.
Scanning the Markets
A performance run down for our sectors, including experimental, ranked by August performance.
Bond Market Summary
The bond market edged tentatively higher in the first half of August, but lost it all in the last two weeks of the month. T-bonds made new lows for the year in the last days of August.
The Fireworks in July: Some Shooting Stars and Some Duds
Well, I have to admit it, this writer counts himself as one of the befuddled. Based on the calls in late June, a number of clients are also in the peer group. So, in terms of the shorter-term market outlook, I’m afraid it is a case of the befuddled leading the befuddled...or not leading the befuddled?
Reviewing the Second Quarter
For most of us, essentially all of the positive 1987 performance has come in the first three months of the year, with most of that in January and February. Still, our equity model was up 5.2% in the second quarter.
Bond Market Summary
The bond market entered June with a sharp one day sell off and then spent the best part of the month edging higher. However, in the last week or so, bond prices drifted lower in a relatively dull market.
CrossCurrents in May
In terms of sectors and groups, May was an interesting month, even though the popular averages ended the month unchanged.
Perception for the Professional
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