Performance

In June, the bond market appeared to be unstoppable. After a pause mid-month, prices came roaring back edging into new high ground at month end.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by May performance.

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April’s stock market action surprised the majority. The “surprising” strength in the stock market was fueled by a 50 basis point decline in short term rates, continuing evidence of an economic slowdown and less terrifying inflation numbers.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by April performance.

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With at least some preliminary signs the economy is slowing, accompanied by more comforting PPI and CPI numbers, it would appear the Fed is relaxing a bit.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by March performance.

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In mid-March, the bond market was jolted by a nasty PPI number and spent the rest of the month creeping back to pre-PPI release levels. The net result was an unchanged to slightly higher bond market in March.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by February performance.

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For the month of January, the S&P 500 gained 7.1% and the DJIA was up 8%. The Russell 2000, a good measure of secondary stocks, gained a lagging 4.4%. Not much beat the DJIA in January.

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This is indeed a strange environment, where higher short-term rates in effect have become a bond market positive. High short rates cool the economy and keep the dollar strong. Both of these consequences are bond market positives.

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The table on the following page is a performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by 1988 performance.

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Self examination can be good for the soul, so each year time is taken to look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in this publication. Including the good....and the bad.

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For the month of November, the S&P 500 lost 1.9%, with the DJIA down 1.6%. The Russell 2000 (a good measure of secondary issues) was down 3.6%. Blue chip growth groups and Utilities tended to dominate the leaders along with Airlines.

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Even considering the LBO mania and the market’s contracting breadth, I still think the stock market is basically healthy. While a 5%-10% post-election correction is now expected, our Major Trend Index remains comfortably in positive territory.

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For the month of October, the S&P 500 gained 2.6%, with the Value Line Composite down 0.1% and the DJIA up 1.7%. Cyclical and blue chip growth groups tended to dominate the leaders while secondary technology oriented groups were concentrated toward the bottom of the list.

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Wall Street's financial mechanics created chaos in the high grade corporate bond market last month. With exceptions, the LBO frenzy has destroyed, at least for the time being, the usefulness of bond quality ratings. The damage done to many bond portfolios was massive.

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For the month of September, the S&P 500 gained 4.0%, with the Value Line Composite up 2.9% and the DJIA up 4.0%. Consumer related, growth, and blue chip groups dominated the leaders list last month.

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The Gods of the bond market were kind in September, with the bond market performing exactly as we thought it would.

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About two thirds of the sectors beat the S&P 500 and DJIA in August (by not going down as much). Secondary stocks, as a class, also went down less than the big stock averages.

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Not many sectors beat the S&P 500 and DJIA in July. Secondary stocks lagged in the month end rally. For the month, only five of our indices registered gains. But there were not any very big losers either.

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