Performance

For the time being, negative pressures seem to have subsided for the bond market. We don’t think the decline in bond prices is over, but June should allow for a little rest and rehabilitation on the part of the players.

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April couldn’t have been much crueler. Even with the rally from near panic lows, long T-bonds lost 6-7 points for the month, as did long municipals. Corporates held up a little better, dropping only three or four points.

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It was a wild and wooly, hairy and scary market in April, even though the popular averages ended the month only about 1% below where they began. However, the NASDAQ and Value Line measures each declined about 3% over the month.

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It was a strange and narrow market in March, almost a reverse image of the preceding month. The S&P 500 gained 2.6%, the DJIA 3.6%, but very few market sectors outperformed these benchmarks.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.7% in February, the DJIA 3.1%, but the majority of market sectors outperformed these benchmarks. Secondary stocks, especially technology issues, moved well ahead of the popular averages in the last half of the month.

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The bond market surprised a lot of the players in February. When the T-bond futures broke 98 around mid-month, a number of traders thought it was the beginning of a significant decline. But, as you may recall from last month, this publication did not feel such a breakdown would be significant.

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Overall results for the month indicate Technology was the place to be, but most of the big technology gains came in the first half of the month.

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In January, our Major Trend Index, employed to assess the overall health of the stock market, has jumped around like some short-term oscillator.

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1986 full year and final quarter performance for the major sectors the Leuthold Group regularly tracks, as well as some other areas of interest we are monitoring.

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Current estimates are that only about 30% of the professional managers beat the S&P 500 this year, with its 18.4% total return. The DJIA produced a total return gain of 26.9%.... I wonder how many beat that?

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The Major Trend Index deteriorated some and remains negative, as it has since mid-June. Major cyclical bull market top in progress. Shorter term work (Early Warning Index) rendered a “sell” signal on Nov. 21, after giving a “buy” signal on Sept. 15. The Bears may have Christmas.

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For the most part, the market’s leading and lagging sectors were a continuation of October’s trends. Quality Growth did well, while deep cyclicals, inflation sensitive issues and financials lagged. Again, we suspect the derivatives had some impact, as big capitalization, heavy weight growth issues typically performed well.

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The Major Trend Index improved slightly but remains negative, as it has since mid June. The October rally was no surprise and could carry farther, momentarily making new highs in DJIA and S&P 500 (but not broader measures). A major cyclical bull market top in progress. Watch out. View rally as selling opportunity.

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Even considering these deficit related problems, we have to remain cyclically bullish on T-bonds for the next few months. The bond market just has too much going for it. Most of our inflation work remains cool, but this month we present two momentum measures for the PPI and CPI that may appear ominous to some.

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Only two of the thirty-five equity sectors we regularly track recorded plus signs for the month. The S&P 500 was down 7.7% in the quarter, the DJIA off 6.5%. By the looks of our sector performance distribution, I would venture to say most professionals, maybe 70% or more, failed to beat the S&P.

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The bond market worked lower in the first half of September but rallied later in the month, cutting losses for the month in half. Short rates were little changed during September.

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Even though the S&P 500 edged into new high ground, with the DJIA coming within a hairbreadth of doing the same, a number of other stock indices have recovered less than half of their July losses.

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Bonds moved higher in August but did not make new highs. However, it is only a matter of time. Most of our inflation work is still cool, but this month we present one of our tools that is mildly disturbing. The commodity spot price diffusion index seems to be on the rise, although not yet in negative territory.

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The Major Trend Index slid to negative status in mid-June and currently remains in negative territory. It appears a cyclical bear market is underway. A typical bear market is down 24%-28%. A very cautious attitude is warranted and any further strength in the market is best viewed as an opportunity to become more defensive.

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The highlights are few. All in all, this was a pretty bloody mess. I suspect most portfolio managers had a tough time holding their losses to less than the markets 6%.

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