Momentum

Basically, things are still pretty healthy for the chip makers. This industry has not fallen apart, it’s just not growing at the unsustainably high rate of the past several years.

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Earnings Momentum still relatively strong, but some fade is evident. More of a fade is expected as later quarterly reports come in.

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Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...adding earnings momentum as a positive.

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Earnings momentum may be peaking. The economy should slow by mid-1995, but analysts may not be factoring this into estimates. Also, year over year comparisons will be tougher as 1994's big earnings numbers get factored in.

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A form of momentum investing that is becoming increasingly common these days, but not discussed much.

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The economic expansion has been so lackluster that we have expected companies to have problems growing earnings. While we have seen this Earnings Momentum decelerate somewhat, the momentum continues to look relatively strong.

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The vast majority of 1991 fourth quarter earnings reports have been released.

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On an aggregate basis, third and fourth quarter reported earnings will be below even what pessimistic prognosticators are projecting. However, looking at earnings momentum on the basis of individual companies presents a very different picture.

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We normally present our Earnings Momentum study in the Appendix on a monthly basis. Because of the current impressive results of this work and the implications for the economy and the stock market, we have decided to emphasize the study by highlighting it in the “X- rays” section this month.

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It is likely that third quarter and possibly fourth quarter earnings will be disappointing, although year over year comparisons may not look so bad.

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The S&P 500 and DJIA stalled in March, with a rebound in the last week of the month providing the modest 1%-2% gains. Among The Leuthold Group’s 62 equity sectors, 40 (65%) beat the S&P in March. Yes, it was another good month for active managers.

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While the three month earnings momentum work does not look at all encouraging, there was a glimmer of hope in June. In looking at the individual monthly data, earnings reports released in June were relatively good.

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Recently some clients have asked about the status of the Very Long Term Momentum Indicator. This stock market tool is the original creation of the late “Sedge” Coppock. While we have made some modifications in interpretation, it is essentially Coppock’s work.

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A month ago, this work appeared to be giving some support to the “soft landing” thesis. But the earnings reports published in April provide a more negative message.

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In November, we had a number of clients inquire about the current status of our earnings momentum monitor, so we have again decided to publish an update of this work. Just a cursory glance at our Advance/Decline chart is all that is needed to see that the earnings momentum is slowing dramatically.

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The recent results of this work clearly show that the corporate earnings momentum is slowing. In the second quarter of 1989, there were 2867 up earnings reports versus 1982 down earnings reports for a ratio of 1.45. This ratio matches the lowest ratio registered in this limited historical study.

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Are we going to see a “soft landing”, a “fly by”, or a recession? This work may ultimately provide some clues.

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Last month we presented this original indicator of earnings momentum. At that time, we commented that our quarterly reporting periods might be warped and perhaps misleading. This month we have readjusted the quarterly reporting periods so they now better track the traditional calendar quarters.

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In the fall of 1988, this publication detailed a very reliable long-term stock market indicator we call VLT momentum. Herein, we present the record tracking back to 1897, employing average monthly prices in the calculation rather than month end prices.

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As promised, in this issue we present the very long-term record of this long-term low risk stock market momentum tool. With a data assist from Bill Doane of Minuteman Financial in Boston, we can now present the record tracking back to 1897.

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