Momentum

Earnings Momentum appears to have slipped some in Q1. Peak earnings momentum now behind us. Expect slowdown, as economy cools and cost pressures heat up.

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What has happened to the Stock/Bond Models? Does the CPI now understate inflation? If stock market returns average 20% per year, as some investors expect, young investors need not worry about Social Security…Fat Chance!

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Maybe we are too cautious about calling a turn in relative small cap performance. VLT work on Russell 2000 and Value Line now both giving buy signals.

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The demise of the earnings momentum investor: continuing success of this numbers game is being in­creasingly threatened by earnings pre-announcements.

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Using the broad sector component stocks, Jim Floyd calculates the Leuthold Weighted year over year, quarterly operating earnings gain (or loss) utilizing the companies in each sector.

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There are signs of an earnings slowdown especially within the big cap arena...small cap earnings have held up relatively better.

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Earnings momentum continues to be strong. Small cap earnings are improving significantly, while big cap results remain robust.

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Small cap earnings momentum appears to have improved significantly again in Q3, but this was matched by an equally impressive earnings performance by big caps.

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Our momentum studies indicate that big cap earnings and sales momentum may be fading. Small cap earnings and sales trends, on the other hand, appear to be stable and maybe even improving.

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Ten largest S&P 500 stocks had latest four quarter earnings rise +19%, compared with top 25 companies +15%, top 100 companies +13% and bottom 200 companies +4%.

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Small cap earnings momentum appears to have improved significantly in Q2. Big cap faded somewhat, with one-third of database yet to report.

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Technically, even after July’s move, the relative strength line is closer to breaking down (below 70) than it is to making a new high above the 1995 peak (above 80).

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S&P heaviest weights now experiencing accelerating earnings momentum. Best broad sector earnings momentum: Energy and Healthcare...Worst: Basic Materials, Utilities, and Technology.

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Big cap earnings momentum is best and seems to be reaccelerating. Small cap earnings lagging by a bigger margin.

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Earnings momentum studies indicating a re-acceleration rather than a continuation of the earnings slowdown we’ve been seeing. Earnings up/down ration at 2.20. One of the strongest ever recorded.

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Our earnings momentum studies show some slowing year over year, but not as much as Wall Street seems to believe.

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Earnings for the first and second quarter better than most expected, as evident by Andy Engel’s up/down earnings momentum work and Jim Floyd’s 3000 company studies.

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While Earnings Momentum looked relatively strong for the fourth quarter of 1995, there are some very early warning signals beginning to appear.

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There have been some big headline earnings disappointments, but the overall earnings trend remains pretty solid for now. Based on our analysis of up earnings reports/down earnings reports, things look good. The current ratio is still indicative of a strong economy.

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Major Trend Index now positive, after changing weight of equity fund flows. Additional changes made in technical breadth and momentum measures should increase responsiveness when the current “new valuation era” closes down.

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