Market Action

Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market  momentum built.

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Leuthold broad tech sector up 17% in November! But, only three of our other nine broad sectors managed decent gains for the month. Watch January, Fed could tighten in a hurry and raise rates.

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Beginning this month, “Scanning The Markets” will include almost all the new S&P/MSCI “standardized” narrow industry group classifications as employed in our new publication Leuthold’s Groups.

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Halloween belongs to the bulls, but November could be a turkey....Major Trend Index turned more negative in October. Steve gives his reasons for shorting.

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Late September surge in price of gold put gold mining group at top of monthly performance table (+26%), followed by Internet Insanity with 12% gain on the month.

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Thus far in 1999, technology still leads. Seven of the top ten performing groups are technology subsets.

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September-October, two months to be wary of.

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Biotechs came on strong in July (17.3% gain), beating all sectors for the month. Internet Insanity and Internet Services were the big losers for July (both down about 14%).

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What happened to the markets in July?..…No obvious major factor for decline. The daily stock market chart of July 1999 is close to a carbon copy of July 1998. Will history repeat itself in August? Let’s hope not.

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Interesting switch in Q2, away from intangibles of cyberspace and into technology equipment. Year to date momentum, though shifty, is still concentrated in technology and communications.

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Just as many plan sponsors throw in the towel, active managers pull a great quarter out of their collective hat. What's in store for the second half of 1999?

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Cyclical rally proved short lived, while “dotcom” stocks suffered poorest month since August 1998.

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The S&P 500 eased 2.5% in May, while measures of smaller cap stocks edged up 1% to 2%. Major Trend Index has shifted to negative status. Dow Jones 40,000?

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Massive shift into cyclical stocks during April left most investors scratching their heads, as technology high-flyers took second chair to metals, energy, and other basic materials.

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I don’t ever recall seeing a month with such a sudden and dramatic change in market character, at least not in terms of sector and group leadership.

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Energy stocks ignited in March with Oil Equipment & Services outstripping the (still) high flying Internet stocks.

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S&P 500’s cap weighted 5% Q1 return overwhelmed most active manager’s returns.

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The month of love left most tech investors and small cap investors broken-hearted.

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Back on sidelines again, Major Trend Index negative. Stage being set for a huge small cap market.

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Measured from the recent market month end lows (August 1998), the NASDAQ Composite has surged 67.1%, beating 86% of Leuthold equity sectors over this time frame.

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