Market Action

It was not too hard for our equity groups to outperform during November, as 83 of our 132 equity groups (63%) outperformed the S&P 500, with 41 of these turning in flat or positive returns (31% of all groups). Compared to the NASDAQ, 113 of the groups (86%) performed better.

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November market devastation not the result of Florida Follies….Tech sector disappointments and lowered prospects are most of it. The Good News: Two-thirds of the current bear market may now be history. Expect counter trend rally soon, but third and final “Bear” leg likely in Q1, 2001.

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The DJIA was up 3.0% in October, but most other market indices fell. The S&P 500 was down 0.5%, with the NASDAQ continuing to trail the pack with an 8.3% loss during the month.

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I think November might be a rather dreary month for the U.S. stock market, even if we don’t get those cold chilling rains.

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The market conditions looked stronger at the beginning of September, but warnings of disappointing earnings quickly drove the market down.

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October carries a reputation with investors as the “cruelest  month”, but statistically, September is most likely to be a downer. Paid To Play Portfolio: Now up an unbelievable 57% YTD. Tech Sunset? Professionals seem to be lightening their load in technology and communication commitments, now targeting a market weight.

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Technology stocks came roaring back in August, with the broad Information Technology sector racking up a 17.4% gain.

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The DJIA was the winner among the major stock market indices with its small 0.7% gain. Most of the measures were down in July...the NASDAQ lost 5.0% and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%. Despite the overall market weakness, there were still several groups that did well.

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The Value Tide is coming in (finally). In July, Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap Value all outperformed their “Growth” counterparts by  generous margins.

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Technology stocks led the market again in June, after being hit hard in May.

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 Year 2000 is half over...Leuthold Paid To Play equity portfolio concentrated in Energy and Health Care up 7% in June, +33% YTD. Also, today’s huge valuation dichotomy.

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Despite the painful tech market in May, with the S&P 500 down 2.2% and the NASDAQ down 11.9%, there were several groups performing well.

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Kate Welling shares her insight on the recent market action. Also, the 2000 NASDAQ Market...The magnitude and short duration of both the Spring decline and the last few days’  20%+ rally, are a direct reflection of the sad state of liquidity in the NASDAQ market.

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Technology stocks were particularly hard hit in April, with nine of the 15 worst performing groups being Tech related.

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Modifications to Major Trend Index improve reading, but MTI is still very negative.

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Biotech took a big tumble in March, and its 30% loss was the worst performing group. Technology issues were also particularly hard hit with 5 of the next 7 worst performers high tech groups.

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Year 2000 Q1 is history. Initially technology ruled, but “old economy” stocks revived late in the quarter, although it looked for a while like they might be terminal. But, you want to know what I think will happen now.

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Two way market? In February, 15 groups recorded double digit advances (9 were Info. Tech related). But 25 groups had double digit losses.

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Cribbing from Charles Dickens, February was the best of times and the worst of times.

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Market averages all posted losses in January. 45% of groups in Leuthold coverage better than the 5.1% loss in S&P 500. 43% outperformed DJIA’s 4.8% loss.

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