Market Action

The broad market continued to trace out a labored recovery from the July lows, yet the day to day performance volatility continued to keep many market participants from getting too comfortable with the trend.

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In the past, Wall Street activity slowed in August as professionals headed for the beach. However, the “Hyper-connected Era” has changed all that, as evidenced by higher market volatility in recent years during July and August.

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Well, now it’s officially a bear market. But readers should realize that since bear markets typically decline 28%, the bear is likely at least two-thirds over.

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The stock market continued to move higher in May, with small and mid cap stocks outperforming the majority of large cap indices.

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Relief finally came to Wall Street, not in the form of rebate checks or rate cuts, but from the strongest monthly returns since December 2003.

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The moderate index level price moves from February month-end to March month-end didn’t give any indication of the wild swings that occurred during the days in between.

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The stock market continued to trend lower in February, with most broad indexes posting losses in the 2%-3% range by month end.

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To the extent that the January Barometer can still be trusted—and in judging its recent track record, it certainly can’t—the losses in January provide a foreboding message for the bulls in early 2008.

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December’s bi-polar price swings had screens flashing brilliant with traditional holiday colors of red and green.

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The venerable Wall Of Worry finally got to the stock market during November, with the major indexes losing their grip virtually right out of the gates.

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October marked new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials, while mid and small cap indexes like the Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P Mid Cap indexes, tested, but failed to take out their July-2007 highs.

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Although the general tone of the markets improved in September, we continue to see signs that recent strength may not have a lot of foundation or staying power.

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Not even the stock market gymnastics of late-February and March of this year could rival the kind of volatility  we saw in August.

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August was comparable to flying through a category five hurricane, a violent storm with gut wrenching updrafts and downdrafts. The relatively low volume recovery from the August lows has the characteristics of a bear market rally, not the beginning of another major move to the upside.

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The Major Trend Index’s bearish reading put us on the right side of the market during the second half of July.

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At a time when the public remains largely sidelined, corporations, private equity, and professional investors continue to take the U.S. stock market averages higher.

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It is getting increasingly clear that current stock market gains are being built upon the backs of corporate and private equity investors.

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The bulls remain in command as evidenced by the fact that the broad market averages continue their ascent toward new cyclical highs (or in some cases like the DJIA and Russell 2000—new all-time highs).

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The stock market spent much of March trying to climb out of the hole dug back on February 27th. But to date, the primary indexes are still below late-February’s cyclical highs.

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Although the markets continued to trend higher for much of the month, the steep losses on February 27th reminded us all again what a good dose of market volatility felt like. Feel better now?

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