Market Action
Scanning The Markets
For 1998, Internet beat all other sectors, posting a 121% return. Tech...Big Ten (+75%) next best sector in 1998.
Still Bullish On U.S. Stock Market
As is typical, December was a weird month for the stock market, as year-end cross currents swirled. Market breadth, as measured by advance/decline studies, spurted late in December, but lagged for the month.
Scanning the Markets
Technology sectors leading this advancing market with double-digit returns in November.
Scanning the Markets
Technology-related sectors took lead in October rally. Small caps lagged for the month, but came on strong in last two weeks.
October: Who Woulda Thought…
The evils of October vanished after the first six trading days. Small can stocks cheap relative to large caps but not cheap relative to their own history.
Scanning the Markets
Phones, Drugs, Biotech, and Utilities among leading equity sectors in Q3.
September: The Best Month of a Terrible Quarter
September the best month of a terrible quarter. October could present some opportunities.. This could be an exceptional bounce year. Major Trend remains Negative. Recommended strategy: Maintain maximum allowable defensive equity.
Scanning the Markets
S&P 500 and DJIA down 15% in August, but outperformed 75% of 84 sectors.
August Was Terrible
August’s decline was the largest monthly decline since October 1987. Recommended Client Strategy: maintain most defensive equity stance available - if cash is not an option, concentrate in defensive equity sectors.
Scanning the Markets
In all, only 10 sectors posted gains during July...including a strong 3.0% gain in Cable.
Big Cap Dominance…More Striking After July Turmoil
The second half of 1998 got off with a thud for most managers. It is becoming increasingly evident that we are in a two tiered market—the only positive relative performance is from the largest of the big cap “growth” stocks.
Scanning the Markets
Excellent stock picking combined with good sector performance to drive the live Paid to Play Equity Portfolio to a strong 11.8% gain in June. Only four sectors outperformed our live portfolio.
Was Q2 a Tough One For You?
S&P 500 turned in a +3.3% return for Q2 and not many managers matched it. Only a mere 20% of the Leuthold sectors tracked outperformed it.
Scanning the Markets
May was a tough month, with only 18% of the sectors beating the DJIA (-1.8%) and 19% beating the S&P 500 (-1.9%).
The Not So Merry Month of May
May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.
Scanning the Markets
Interest rate jitters certainly had its impact felt among the sectors, with some of the interest sensitive groups getting hit hard.
April: Earnings Cross Currents
Late April preliminary real GDP estimate was a strong 4.2% gain, with the lowest inflation adjustment in 34 years. The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged from the prior quarter for the first time since 1954.
Scanning the Markets
March performance was outstanding, with seven of the eight active sectors beating the S&P 500 return.
March Madness
The market finished the first quarter of1998 strong, with the S&P 500 up 13.5% and the Dow Jones flirting with the 9000 milestone. Expectations for April? More of the same. Nothing on horizon to shake individual investors’ confidence.
The February Sweet Spot
Major Trend Index turned Positive in early February...Expect market to move higher over next few months as long as Main Street keeps fueling Wall Street.
Perception for the Professional
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