Market Action

Short-term, the DJIA is charging but a lot of market troops are hanging back. We are not so sure the correction is over. However, the cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago, is starting to look healthier.

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The current cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is no longer so healthy. The Major Trend Index is still positive but deteriorating. The expected intermediate correction is upon us and could be greater than most now think. The duration could be as long as 2 months.

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The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-bonds, maybe much lower on a secular basis. The current correction might run to 12%-12.5% for T-bonds, but we are tempted to start a buying program before that.

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The popular market averages recorded little net change over the last five weeks even though the unweighted price indices have continued to move higher. We continue to believe the market is on pretty shaky ground near term.

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The stock market is maybe half or two thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. The cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index, but for the first time in nine years is no longer “undervalued.” Shorter-term, an intermediate term correction is expected almost any time.

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The stock market is about half way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. The cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index. However, the intermediate term correction looks like it’s finally here.

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The bond market is also in the midst of secular and cyclical bull moves. But intermediate-term is now a question mark. However, if bonds exceed November 1982 peaks, assume cyclical bull market back on track. Go with the flow.

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We think the stock market, probably powered by an oil stock rebound, may run another 5%-10% before the long-anticipated correction becomes reality.

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All systems again “go” for stock market. Major Trend Index remains Positive by comfortable margin. Short-term looks good too, maybe 1150 before another pause.

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The most significant development since the last issue has been the renewed massive downside pressure on the oil stocks. Is it time to finally start bottom fishing in oils?

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In September the stock market moved sideways, and just as it seemed the underpinnings would finally crack, just as it seemed our expected correction was about to begin, an explosion occurred, on the up side, not the down side.

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Skittishly Bullish best describes our attitude. June was disappointing, significantly eroding our analytical work even though the popular averages drifted only slightly lower. The time is coming for the Natural Resource Disaster Area and the Super Sick Cyclicals. It's still too early, but we are sharpening up the timing tools.

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Down more than expected in May but the Major Trend Index remains decisively bullish. Early Warning Index at +10, -3, combined with sentiment and momentum work leads to a conclusion that current decline may be about over, with market rallying again later in June. Advise accumulation.

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