Market Action

A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by August 1991 performance.

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In July, the stock and bond markets pretty much moved in lock step and recovered what June gave away. Secondary stocks did not as a class fare quite so well.

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The second quarter of 1991 is history. While the market averages ended the second quarter about where they began, our Major Trend Index has lost quite a bit of ground in the last three months.

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Has the June stock market decline set the stage for a good second half for stocks?

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A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by June 1991 performance.

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The stars of May, at least the last half of the month, were the stocks and groups most sensitive to the business cycle.

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A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by April 1991 performance.

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For the month of April, higher quality long bonds turned in small fractional gains. The economic tea leaves were mixed, inflation numbers were good, the dollar held up and short term rates came down. However, a big pick up in new fixed income offerings seemed to satisfy investor demand.

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The S&P 500 and DJIA stalled in March, with a rebound in the last week of the month providing the modest 1%-2% gains. Among The Leuthold Group’s 62 equity sectors, 40 (65%) beat the S&P in March. Yes, it was another good month for active managers.

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So we made it through October without taking a big stock market hit. The popular stock market measures ended the month about where they started, enough to reduce investor pessimism levels by a few degrees, maybe more.

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If you thought the third quarter of 1990 was bad in the U.S. stock market, think of those poor fellas in Tokyo. Of course if your universe is secondary stocks, it was worse than that.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by 2nd quarter 1990 performance.

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The May market surge was both impressive and unexpected. Most of Wall Street was surprised by the magnitude of the move.

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Upon returning to the office at month end, my first impression of April stock market action was positive. But then I dug into our indicators, chart books and numbers. It was clear my first impression was wrong.

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Our Major Trend Index remains decidedly negative. The current ratio of 0.67, although improved from a week ago, is about the same as a month ago. Thus our opinion is unchanged. It appears we are in the early stage of a cyclical bear market.

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The table on the next page is a performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by January performance.

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In August, as the “fly by” thesis went to the top of Wall Street’s popularity charts, the big cyclicals gained a new lease on life.

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July was a very big month for the popular averages, with the DJIA up 9.0% and the S&P 500 up 8.8%. The big action was in big cap issues, with high quality growth issues featured (especially drugs).

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by June performance.

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April’s stock market action surprised the majority. The “surprising” strength in the stock market was fueled by a 50 basis point decline in short term rates, continuing evidence of an economic slowdown and less terrifying inflation numbers.

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