Market Action

Much has been made about the CRB Index making a new high on November 27. We are very skeptical. Comparisons herein will demonstrate the warping in this index. I think we are now getting an inflation false alarm, but at this point the signals are mixed.

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A performance run down for our sectors, including experimental sectors, ranked by October performance. Most equity sectors went down significantly more than the S&P 500 during October.

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After an ominous five-point sell off in the first part of October, the Treasury market turned on a dime and blasted upward, running up 10 points in four days. But not all bond market sectors participated. It was a flight to quality.

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Our view remains unchanged in terms of prudent investment strategy. While trading opportunities may abound in the next few weeks, both long and short, the stock market is downright dangerous.

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The bond market held its own in the middle two weeks of September, but the first week and the last week of the month were downright nasty.

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Well, I have to admit it, this writer counts himself as one of the befuddled. Based on the calls in late June, a number of clients are also in the peer group. So, in terms of the shorter-term market outlook, I’m afraid it is a case of the befuddled leading the befuddled...or not leading the befuddled?

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Our broad-based measure of the stock market’s wellbeing improved in June, gaining some 500+ points. However, this work still remains decidedly negative on balance.

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The bond market entered June with a sharp one day sell off and then spent the best part of the month edging higher. However, in the last week or so, bond prices drifted lower in a relatively dull market.

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When the closing bell sounded on April 30, the market averages were down very little from the month before. To the casual observer, it might appear to have been a dull quiet month. But to those on the floor, in front of a quotron, or even reading the daily financial pages, it was anything but.

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It was a wild and wooly, hairy and scary market in April, even though the popular averages ended the month only about 1% below where they began. However, the NASDAQ and Value Line measures each declined about 3% over the month.

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It was a strange and narrow market in March, almost a reverse image of the preceding month. The S&P 500 gained 2.6%, the DJIA 3.6%, but very few market sectors outperformed these benchmarks.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.7% in February, the DJIA 3.1%, but the majority of market sectors outperformed these benchmarks. Secondary stocks, especially technology issues, moved well ahead of the popular averages in the last half of the month.

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In January, our Major Trend Index, employed to assess the overall health of the stock market, has jumped around like some short-term oscillator.

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Even after the excitement of early January, it still looks like a major cyclical bull market top is in progress.

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For the most part, the market’s leading and lagging sectors were a continuation of October’s trends. Quality Growth did well, while deep cyclicals, inflation sensitive issues and financials lagged. Again, we suspect the derivatives had some impact, as big capitalization, heavy weight growth issues typically performed well.

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Even though the S&P 500 edged into new high ground, with the DJIA coming within a hairbreadth of doing the same, a number of other stock indices have recovered less than half of their July losses.

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Bonds held their own in July but did not make new highs. However, it is only a matter of time. We don’t expect much in August but look for a move below 7% for T-bonds by year end.

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The Major Trend Index slid to negative status in mid-June and currently remains in negative territory. It appears a cyclical bear market may be in prospect.

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The stock market and bond market diverged rather sharply in May, with most market averages up about 5%, while bonds moved lower, especially long T-bonds, which fell over 6%.

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May saw the T-bond market come down into our buying zone and we are buyers in this issue. We expect 7% on T-bonds before 1986 is over (now 8.50%) and maybe lower. The stock and bond markets do not have to move together as May clearly demonstrated.

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