Market Action

The NASDAQ posted a strong 12.8% gain in October, and also leads the pack from the September 21st low with an 18.8% gain.

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Areas hardest hit subsequent to the Attack typically rebounded the most. Sector and Industry Group leaders and laggers examined herein, from the lows of 9/21 and from before the Attack.

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Market shrugged off bad news; but rally from the lows is almost a text book example of a bear market rally. Plus, Steve's current outlook regarding the Economy, Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates.

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Our Scanning table this issue focuses on the equity group performance following the September 11th terrorist attacks.

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Unlike most past market crises, a post-crisis rally did not immediately follow the September 11th Attack. October Expectations: The passage of time is beginning to moderate Wall Street’s debilitating pain. I think the stock market rebound rally could be about to get underway in earnest.

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It’s been a very difficult market, as there has been very little prolonged group leadership. This is to be expected near market bottoms, as investors are shifting assets quickly in these uncertain times.

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What I Worry About...The possibility of this being a secular, not a cyclical bear market. Four decades in the investment business have taught me to respect the message of the market itself.

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It’s been a very difficult market, as there has been very little prolonged group leadership. This is to be expected near market bottoms, as investors are shifting assets quickly in these uncertain times.

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We were wrong about a rally in July...What about August?...Much to your family’s dismay, you may want to bring along your cell phone and laptop to the beach this month.

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Small cap stocks were clearly superior in June, with the Russell 2000 rising 3.3% and the S&P Small Cap Index up 3.6%.

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Leadership Expectations: Small and Mid Caps (not Large Caps); Energy Rebound; Biotech and Broad Health Care; some Technology subsets. How long for the NASDAQ to recover to previous highs? Assuming an 11% annual growth rate, the “NAZ” will not recoup until September 2009.

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Tech was hit hard in the last half of May, with eight of the 20 worst performers being Tech related.

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Statistically the summer rally is mostly fiction, historically producing average or slightly below average stock market performance….but don’t plan a three month vacation yet!

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In April, the technology stocks came roaring back to life. Of the 20 best performing groups during the month, 14 were technology related.

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March was an ugly month for the market as a whole, with the S&P 500 diving 6.4% and the NASDAQ plummeted 14.5%. Unlike February, the decline in March was pretty broad based.

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Bear market broadened out in late March to include other than technology sectors. Never before have so many lost so much.…There is plenty of blame to go around. Academia, The Street, the Media, the “Experts” to name a few.

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Once again it looks like the market turned on a dime. In January, we saw many big losers from 2000 bounce back. But in February, things reversed again.

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Quite a reversal of fortune in January, compared to last year. Of the 20 best performers in January, 13 groups are still down over the last twelve months.

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Investors are likely happy to see 2000 come to an end. While much of the focus was on the crushing defeat of Tech stocks last year, there were many pockets of strength.

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Two trading days into 2001, and the first day delivered the second-worst-ever, first day trading loss in the S&P 500 (the worst-ever being the first day of 1932!). Day Two: A surprise, 50 basis point Fed rate cut, brought an upside explosion.

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