Major Trend Index
MTI Remains Strong
The Major Trend Index declined 0.01 to a ratio of 1.30 for the week ended October 14th. Large swings in the Attitudinal and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence categories largely cancelled one another out, and the remaining three categories were essentially flat.
MTI Rose 0.04 Points To 1.31
The Major Trend Index rose 0.04 points to a new post-correction high ratio of 1.31 for the week ended October 7th. This work continues to support above-average exposure to the stock market, and the Leuthold Core and Global Funds are both positioned with 63% in equities.
Only The Shadow Knows
If the above observation from almost a century ago remains on the mark (as it has for almost a century), then both the cyclical bull market and accompanying economic expansion should remain in force during the next several months.
MTI Stable At Bullish Levels Throughout September
Overall, this work supports a constructive intermediate-term stance toward stocks; our tactical portfolios are positioned with equity exposure of 63%—a posture we consider aggressive given the relative maturity of both the economic expansion and the cyclical bull market.
MTI Still Stable At Bullish Level
The Major Trend Index edged up 0.02 to a ratio of 1.27 for the week ended September 30th, remaining within a narrow but decisively bullish band between the 1.20-1.30 level for the ninth consecutive week.
Major Trend Index Down 0.04 To 1.25
Small losses in four of its five categories drove the Major Trend Index down 0.04 to a ratio of 1.25 in the week ended September 23rd. Overall, the weight of the stock market evidence continues to tilt bullish and our tactical portfolios remain fairly aggressive positioned with net equity exposure of 63%.
MTI Constructive Toward Stocks; 1.29 Ratio
The Major Trend Index rose 0.05 to a ratio of 1.29 in the week ended September 16th, representing another new high for the rally that began in February. Moderate gains in Supply/Demand and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence categories were behind the improvement.
MTI Positive, Little Change From Prior Week
Last Friday’s stock market air pocket had little impact on the Major Trend Index, which remained in moderately bullish territory at 1.24 after a weekly decline of 0.02. Swings within the five categories were muted despite the rise in stock and bond market volatility.
MTI Enters September At 3 1/2-Year High
The Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category remains the key driver behind the MTI’s resurgence; that category’s latest net reading of +1028 is the most bullish since May 2010.
How Will It All End?
Last month we described ourselves as “long on equities, but light on conviction,” and that description still applies.
MTI Remains Positive
The Major Trend Index remained firmly in positive territory for the week ended August 26th, dropping 0.02 points to a reading of 1.22. Net equity exposure in both the Leuthold Core and Global Funds remains unchanged at its recent level of 61%.
MTI Comfortably Positive
The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to a ratio of 1.24 based on data through the week ended August 19th. This is comfortably above the MTI neutral zone of 0.95-1.05 and supports our tactical funds’ 60% exposure to equities.
MTI At New Recovery-High Ratio
The Major Trend Index jumped 0.08 to a new recovery-high ratio of 1.22 based on data for the week ended August 5th; the improvement was led by another big gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category. All sub-models relating to Financial industry groups were upgraded in the past week, and Low Volatility stocks’ grip on market leadership has weakened somewhat over the past several trading days. Both are viewed as market positives.
MTI Returned To A Moderately Bullish Stance
Tactical equity exposure raised to 60-61%, however, our enthusiasm is tempered by high domestic valuations and other evidence that the expansion and associated 7 1/2-year bull market are very mature.
MTI Ratio Up Slightly; Remains Moderately Bullish
Based on data for the week ended July 22nd, the Major Trend Index ticked up 0.01 to a new recovery high ratio of 1.15, reflecting mostly offsetting movements within the five indicator categories.
Breadth Data Suggests Higher Highs Next 3-6 Months
Again driven by a large gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category, the Major Trend Index tacked on another 0.05 points to land at a moderately bullish ratio of 1.14 based on data for the week ended July 15th.
MTI Back To Positive; Equity Hedge Removed
After two weeks in the high neutral zone, the Major Trend Index returned to bullish territory based on data through the week ended July 8th.
MTI Dips To High Neutral
We’ll know soon if the recent dip into “Neutral” was nothing more than a news-driven “whipsaw.” But we want to make clear that the MTI decline reflects more than just the Brexit-related market action.
MTI Remains At Neutral
The Major Trend Index edged up 0.02 points to a ratio of 1.04, using data through the week ended July 1st, and remains within its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone for the second consecutive week.
MTI Falls To Neutral
The Major Trend Index fell 0.12 to a Neutral ratio of 1.02 based on data for the week ended June 24th, led entirely by a decline in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category.
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