Federal Debt/Deficit

Leuthold Group’s Commodity Diffusion Index sell signal now looks like a false alarm. The 1996 budget deficit gap is closing at a faster rate than even Clinton’s administration expected. Have Republicans misread what the majority of Americans want from their political leaders?

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Bond market rally stalled out in January...concern over the recent spike in gold prices, political uncertainty, and upcoming treasury auction, seemed to outweigh the weak economic news. Bonds seem over-extended on a short term basis.

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Bond market rally continued in December. Government shutdown curtailed information flow, but economy still looks lame and inflation tame. Investors forced to focus on Washington's political farce.

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Thermal pollution time…Steve Leuthold’s 1996 views (and 1995 reviews) on stocks, interest rates, economy, dollar, deficit, earnings, alternative investment areas and, yes, the Super Bowl.

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The big bond market rally continued to roll ahead in November, with yields in most bond sectors falling 20-25 basis points.

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Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing...other positives include stronger dollar, foreign buying, and declining budget deficit.

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The basic question is, what might motivate the Teflon market to initially suffer a period of weakness?

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Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.

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Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.

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The Economic Surprise And Inflation, The Feds Overheating Economy And Inflation Fears Are Justified and “Contract With America”: The Danger Is Big Tax Cuts But Minimal Spending Cuts

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From Alabama to Wyoming, our Senators and House members are rated for fiscal responsibility based on a study by The Concord Coalition. See how yours rank.

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A reader's case against higher gasoline taxes, followed by my case for consumption taxes and a membership pitch for The Concord Coalition. Did you watch the 56 commercial spots during the Super Bowl? Do you recall what these advertising works of art were selling?

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The early April surge in the bond market stalled out at the late February highs, beating a hasty retreat in the last week of the month.

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An abbreviated 1992 edition of The Leuthold Group’s study of “Political Fiscal Responsibility”, focusing on what appear to be Congress' best and worst.

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The cold war may be over, but generational warfare is looming on the horizon. This month, I have asked David Deming, one of the newer and younger Leuthold Group professionals, to present his views on this subject.

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Has The Political Tide Again Turned?...Are Government Regulation And Spending On The Rise Again?...Are Higher Taxes On The Way?...Maybe Farmers Should Be Buying Toyotas

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Politics and the Stock Market...Fiscal Reform the Hard Way...What's Up With Gold (Not Much except a Weak Dollar)...Eskom (South Africa's Electric Utility) Bonds: A 20% Yield with Some Risk As Well

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The perception nearing November could well shift to a view that the differences in the two parties approach to the world will have an impact on interest rates.

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Peter Bernstein recently observed that the bond market is focusing on deeper concerns that relate more to the political environment than the economic environment.

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In November, recession evidence continued to build. War fears started to fade. November 17 came and went, and the Bush hawk began his molt. The dollar stabilized, at least momentarily. Inflation fears faded, as oil prices traded down. In this environment, the bond market marched steadily upward all month.

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