Federal Debt/Deficit

It is beginning to look like some rigid spending controls may be put in place this year. The Senate seems determined to stand its ground, using the debt ceiling as a club to bring the House along. If this takes place it could bring a blow off in both markets. If it does not, watch out!

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The aging U.S. bull market can’t expect to get much help from investors east of New York.

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April was disappointing. A better market was expected. The lack of deficit reducing progress in Washington is disturbing; but our Major Trend Index, while losing some points from last month, is still comfortably positive. At this point it is appropriate to be guided by the Index rather than emotions.

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Bond returns are not expected to keep pace with stocks over the next 6-12 months. Shorter-term we remain cautious toward the bond market, but would become aggressive should it appear Reagan and Congress are coming together on the deficit.

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We are reprinting this article authored a few months ago by this true legend in his own time. Buffett presents two fantasy plans by which to deal with the current deficit situation, employing them as a device to demonstrate the absurdities and dangers inherent in current policy. Do you want to know why long interest rates remain so high? Buffett explains it and I totally agree.

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Not Exactly a Holiday Greeting: I have become even more convinced that the current upside potential in the stock market is quite limited as long as the deficit stalemate prevails…. Throbbing in Minnesota: It is hoped this will explain to clients why the Leuthold Group finds Minnesota such a glorious location for its research operation.

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The pre-election target of 11.5% for T-Bonds was essentially achieved. Now the market looks overextended and a period of consolidation or correction is expected in November. Ultimately though, the upward move is expected to continue.

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From a shorter-term tactical standpoint, we have lit the caution light for both the stock market and bond market. However, there are some possible post-election developments that would be cause for changing this somewhat defensive stance and once again becoming totally committed to stocks and bonds.

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Back to the Basics? We think individual stock analysis is becoming increasingly important… Tax Simplification Coming Soon: The 1984 additions to the tax laws (over 1300 pages) may be the last straw… A Potential Shortage in Treasury Bonds: I know this sounds absurd. However, in the upcoming financing, the Treasury is for the first time offering a 20-year bond that is callable in five years.

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Using Roll Call voting record statistics provided by the National Taxpayers Union, we previously examined the Senate. This issue, trends in the House are analyzed. Overall, fiscal responsibility is on the wane, especially with Democrats.

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We hear what the politicians say, but how do they vote? Herein, the 1983 voting records on spending issues are tabulated and compared for every U.S. Senator. We then classify the Senators, ranging from “Tough as Nails” to “Totally Irresponsible.” See where your two Senators rank.

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The clock is ticking down, but we don’t know when the upside explosion will take place. It might even occur before the 1984 elections. Whatever, the investment rewards will be rich indeed. Should investors really run the risk of being out of the bond market? Really, the downside risk, considering the earning power of the coupons, is probably negligible. But the potential rewards are mouthwatering.

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Federal debt and its close relationship to inflation is tracked from 1791 to date. Clearly the two are intertwined. Unless some fiscal sanity prevails in Washington, the nation may be in a hyperinflationary mode before the decade is past, regardless of the current cyclical downtrend.

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Did you see Mike Blumenthal’s article, “What Ronald Reagan can learn from Jimmy Carter”? If not, read this brief synopsis. Advises RR to adjust economic program quickly and decisively to new conditions. Don’t hang tough, then retreat step by step. Changing course is not politically wrong.

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