Federal Debt/Deficit
View From The North Country
Leuthold’s thoughts about a potential near-term bull market correction, the current budget deficit, and observations on the political front.
Bond Market Summary
Economy picking up steam in second half. Revised Q2 GDP better than expected.
View From The North Country
Thoughts and commentary regarding the groups in our Select Industries Portfolio, the Mutual Fund Timing scandal, NASD Margin Debt and deficit worries.
Bond Market Summary
GDP growth of +4.0% projected for 2003. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.
View From The North Country
Even with a clearly improving economy, the deficit estimate for fiscal 2004 as been revised upward to $480 billion. Also, the investment survival value of opinion versus discipline and investing in actual physical industrial metals.
Bond Market Summary
High Yield bonds rated marginally attractive after continued spread narrowing.
View From The North Country
Stage is set for market’s next advance, breaking out of its two month consolidation.
Bond Market Summary
“Risk-free bond returns could become return-free risks.” The Leuthold Group has hedged its fixed income position by shorting U.S. Treasuries. May completely hedge entire fixed income exposure later this month.
View From The North Country
Stocks can go up, when interest rates go up. Rates are expected to rise over the second half of 2003, but stocks have proven they can go up in environment of rising rates.
Bond Market Summary
Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom. But are lower rates really necessary to boost business spending?
Bond Market Summary
Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries, if necessary to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom, but will it be the catalyst to boost business spending/borrowing? We think not.
View From The North Country
Deficit Track” March data encouraging, but…...considering the tax cuts already on the books, combined with a bulge in spending, a fiscal 2003 deficit of $400 billion is in prospect.
Bond Market Summary
New bond market timing tool discovered. Testing reveals it has a remarkable forecasting record. Currently signaling bond market top!
View From The North Country
“View From The North Country” this month highlights several prior periods of “scary” market environments. In retrospect, all provided excellent buying opportunities.
Bond Market Summary
The grand 20+ year secular bull market in bonds is probably topping out.
View From The North Country
Consumer confidence now dismal. Historical analysis however indicates that good buying opportunities are typically found during periods of extreme pessimism. Currently view Conference Board measure as a stock market positive!
Bond Market Summary
The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds at the pinnacle is back down to a more normal range, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.
Bond Market Summary
We believe it is still an opportune time to add to High Yield positions. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
Bond Market Summary
High Yield bond only fixed income area strongly appealing to us, currently.
Bond Market Summary
We believe it is an opportune time to add to High Yield positions. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
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