Federal Debt/Deficit

Lower than expected 2004 budget deficit was a short term bond market positive, but longer term deficits are a negative.

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Deficit narrowing. Last three months’ (including first month of fiscal 2005) receipts remarkably strong, while outlays have declined.

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Everyday consumers must find it difficult to believe twelve month inflation is just 2.5% (CPI-U), especially when filling up their gas tanks and their grocery carts.

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Bond yields have declined 40-55 basis points in the past three months.

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After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.

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Falling interest rates and declining oil prices should bolster consumer spending and hopefully get us past the current economic soft spot.

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GDP growth of 4.0% projected for 2004. Improved 2004 budget deficit projections a short term positive for bonds but eventually could be a negative.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($507 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Leuthold believes the big depressant to stock market these days is not necessarily potential for rising interest rates or higher inflation, but instead is due to the gray cloud of the Iraq situation. Good news is that U.S. may be starting to extricate itself from the Iraq quagmire, and that could be a very bullish development in June.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($483 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Don’t get drawn into the TIPs trap. Lack of attractive bond opportunities and prospects for higher inflation may draw investors to Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds. However, there is still risk of significantly higher interest rates, and the fact the inflation factor is tied to an unreliable CPI.

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The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds is back down to a normal level, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.

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Still expect to see market correction develop in coming weeks. Based on past market dynamics, a correction in excess of 5% is overdue, considering it has been almost 12 months of uninterrupted market upside.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004 (6% in the first half, 4% in the second half). But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($475 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($374 billion in 2003) is a significant problem for bonds. Project 2004 budget deficit will expand to $535 billion.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.

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What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.

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Economy picking up steam in second half. Early Q3 GDP estimate much better than expected.

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